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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 705 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF MUSCLE SHOALS ALABAMA TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF GADSDEN
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 116. WATCH NUMBER 116 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 705 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 115...
DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSE STORMS WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS NRN AL THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS TIED TO LARGER SCALE
MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND DEVELOPING CYCLONE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ATTM. CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT SHOULD SUSTAIN THESE STORMS WITHIN STRONGLY
SHEARED FLOW REGIME. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS AS BULK OF THIS REGION CURRENTLY REMAINS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. HOWEVER... TRAILING OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORM/SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26055.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 118 SEVERE TSTM AL 151205Z - 151500Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
30SSW MSL/MUSCLE SHOALS AL/ - 40NE GAD/GADSDEN AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM EITHER SIDE /27SW MSL - 41SSW GQO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26055.
REPLACES WW 116..AL
LAT...LON 34938783 34958559 33798556 33778780
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 118 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 118
VALID 151450Z - 151500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE TCL
TO 30 N BHM TO 25 ESE HSV TO 45 NE HSV.
WW 118 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 151500Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 417
..HURLBUT..03/15/08
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 118
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-015-019-029-049-055-071-073-095-115-151500-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE
CLEBURNE DEKALB ETOWAH
JACKSON JEFFERSON MARSHALL
ST. CLAIR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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