Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1055
PM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 116. WATCH NUMBER 116 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1055 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 118...WW 119...
DISCUSSION...EARLIER SUPERCELLS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT HAVE BEEN WEAKENING GRADUALLY...AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO EVOLVE
INTO MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...ORGANIZED
BOWING SEGMENTS AND SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE MORE COMMON SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS/
MESOVORTICES COULD POSE A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 120 TORNADO AR OK 180355Z - 181100Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NNW FYV/FAYETTEVILLE AR/ - 30SSW ADM/ARDMORE OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /23NW RZC - 19S ADM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
REPLACES WW 116..OK TX
LAT...LON 36529326 33889608 33889834 36529562
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 120 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 120
VALID 180735Z - 180840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/18/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 120
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-180840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
$$
OKC001-005-013-019-021-029-035-037-041-049-061-063-067-069-077-
085-091-095-097-099-101-105-107-111-115-121-123-125-131-133-135-
137-143-145-180840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE COAL
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
GARVIN HASKELL HUGHES
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER
LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL
MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TULSA
WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 120
VALID 180545Z - 180640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/18/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 120
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-180640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
$$
OKC001-005-013-019-021-029-035-037-041-049-061-063-067-069-077-
085-091-095-097-099-101-105-107-111-115-121-123-125-131-133-135-
137-143-145-180640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE COAL
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
GARVIN HASKELL HUGHES
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER
LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL
MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TULSA
WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 120
VALID 180450Z - 180540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/18/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 120
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-180540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
$$
OKC001-005-013-019-021-029-035-037-041-049-061-063-067-069-077-
085-091-095-097-099-101-105-107-111-115-121-123-125-131-133-135-
137-143-145-180540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE COAL
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
GARVIN HASKELL HUGHES
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER
LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL
MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TULSA
WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.