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Tornado Watch 120 Watch Hazard Probabilities
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Note:  The parallelogram is only an approximation to the watch, the actual watch is defined by the outlines of the counties contained in it.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (20%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Low (10%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (10%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

Mod (60%)

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

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Page last modified: April 30, 2014
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