Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 705 AM UNTIL 100
PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
ORANGEBURG SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS MORNING OVER WATCH AREA...WHERE RAPID MOISTURE RETURN
HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 121 TORNADO NC SC CW 061105Z - 061700Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
45SE FAY/FAYETTEVILLE NC/ - 25SSE OGB/ORANGEBURG SC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM EITHER SIDE /24WNW ILM - 35WNW CHS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 33637772 32258008 34008129 35387894
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 121 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 121
VALID 061630Z - 061700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRE TO
15 W ILM.
WW 121 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 061700Z.
THE SRN EXTENT OF TSTMS EXTENDING ACROSS SERN NC WILL CONTINUE TO
EITHER WEAKEN AND/OR MOVE EAST OF WW 121 BY 1730Z.
..PETERS..04/06/09
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 121
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC019-129-141-061700-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRUNSWICK NEW HANOVER PENDER
$$
AMZ250-252-254-256-061700-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 121
VALID 061530Z - 061640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CHS
TO 20 WNW CRE TO 20 ESE FAY.
..PETERS..04/06/09
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 121
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC017-019-047-129-141-061640-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS
NEW HANOVER PENDER
$$
SCC019-043-051-067-061640-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHARLESTON GEORGETOWN HORRY
MARION
$$
AMZ250-252-254-256-330-350-061640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM
CHARLESTON HARBOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 121
VALID 061440Z - 061540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CHS
TO 40 N CHS TO 15 NNE FLO TO 10 SSW SOP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 408.
..PETERS..04/06/09
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 121
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-061540-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS
NEW HANOVER PENDER ROBESON
$$
SCC015-019-033-035-041-043-051-067-089-061540-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKELEY CHARLESTON DILLON
DORCHESTER FLORENCE GEORGETOWN
HORRY MARION WILLIAMSBURG
$$
AMZ250-252-254-256-330-350-061540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM
CHARLESTON HARBOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 121
VALID 061335Z - 061440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW OGB TO
30 NNE CAE.
..PETERS..04/06/09
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 121
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-061440-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS
NEW HANOVER PENDER ROBESON
$$
SCC015-017-019-025-027-031-033-035-041-043-051-055-057-061-067-
069-075-079-085-089-061440-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKELEY CALHOUN CHARLESTON
CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON DARLINGTON
DILLON DORCHESTER FLORENCE
GEORGETOWN HORRY KERSHAW
LANCASTER LEE MARION
MARLBORO ORANGEBURG RICHLAND
SUMTER WILLIAMSBURG
$$
AMZ250-252-254-256-330-350-061440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM
CHARLESTON HARBOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 121
VALID 061235Z - 061340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/06/09
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 121
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-061340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS
NEW HANOVER PENDER ROBESON
$$
SCC015-017-019-025-027-031-033-035-039-041-043-051-055-057-061-
063-067-069-075-079-085-089-061340-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKELEY CALHOUN CHARLESTON
CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON DARLINGTON
DILLON DORCHESTER FAIRFIELD
FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HORRY
KERSHAW LANCASTER LEE
LEXINGTON MARION MARLBORO
ORANGEBURG RICHLAND SUMTER
WILLIAMSBURG
$$
AMZ250-252-254-256-330-350-061340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM
CHARLESTON HARBOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.