Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...POTENT TROUGH AND STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS
OK AND N/S DRY LINE IN ADVANCE JUST E OF I35 CORRIDOR. AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF DRY LINE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AND WITH STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES AND LARGE ASCENT WITH TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ERN OK. IN ADDITION TO VERY
LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES POSSIBLY STRONG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 123 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 091845Z - 100200Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NNE CNU/CHANUTE KS/ - 45WSW DEQ/DE QUEEN AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /42WSW BUM - 55WNW TXK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 37999373 33799363 33799659 37999687
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 123 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 123
VALID 100130Z - 100200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S DEQ TO
30 E FYV.
WW 123 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 100200Z.
..GRAMS..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 123
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC015-047-061-081-087-133-100200-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL FRANKLIN HOWARD
LITTLE RIVER MADISON SEVIER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 123
VALID 100100Z - 100140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW DEQ
TO 10 SE FYV TO 25 ENE JLN TO 20 WSW CNU TO 25 SSW EMP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 418.
..GRAMS..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 123
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC015-033-047-061-081-087-131-133-100140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MADISON
SEBASTIAN SEVIER
$$
KSC001-011-037-133-205-207-100140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CRAWFORD
NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-109-217-100140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON LAWRENCE
VERNON
$$
OKC089-100140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 123
VALID 092325Z - 100040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW PRX TO
35 SSW GMJ TO 35 SW CNU TO 50 NNW BVO TO 25 SW EMP.
..GRAMS..04/09/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 123
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-061-081-083-087-113-127-131-133-143-100040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN HOWARD LITTLE RIVER
LOGAN MADISON POLK
SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-011-021-037-049-073-099-133-205-207-100040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHEROKEE
CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD
LABETTE NEOSHO WILSON
WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-097-109-119-145-217-100040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON JASPER
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
VERNON
$$
OKC001-021-023-035-041-061-077-079-089-115-127-135-100040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
CRAIG DELAWARE HASKELL
LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN
OTTAWA PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 123
VALID 092230Z - 092340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE DUA
TO 15 W MKO TO 20 NNW BVO TO 40 SE ICT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
415.
..GRAMS..04/09/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 123
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-061-081-083-087-113-127-131-133-143-092340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN HOWARD LITTLE RIVER
LOGAN MADISON POLK
SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-011-015-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-
092340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON BUTLER
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY
CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD
LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-097-109-119-145-217-092340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON JASPER
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
VERNON
$$
OKC001-005-013-021-023-035-041-061-077-079-089-091-097-101-105-
115-121-127-131-135-145-147-092340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CRAIG
DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOWATA
OTTAWA PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
ROGERS SEQUOYAH WAGONER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 123
VALID 092135Z - 092240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW DUA
TO 40 NNW MLC TO 20 NE PNC.
..GRAMS..04/09/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 123
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-061-081-083-087-113-127-131-133-143-092240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN HOWARD LITTLE RIVER
LOGAN MADISON POLK
SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-011-015-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-
092240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON BUTLER
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY
CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD
LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-097-109-119-145-217-092240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON JASPER
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
VERNON
$$
OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-035-037-041-061-063-077-079-089-091-
097-101-105-111-113-115-121-127-131-135-143-145-147-092240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOWATA
OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA
PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA ROGERS
SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 123
VALID 092035Z - 092140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CQB
TO 15 NE CQB TO 35 N CQB.
..SMITH..04/09/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 123
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-061-081-083-087-113-127-131-133-143-092140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN HOWARD LITTLE RIVER
LOGAN MADISON POLK
SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-011-015-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-
092140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON BUTLER
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY
CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD
LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-097-109-119-145-217-092140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON JASPER
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
VERNON
$$
OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-035-037-041-061-063-069-077-079-089-
091-095-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-127-131-133-135-
143-145-147-092140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN
MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
PUSHMATAHA ROGERS SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (70%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.