Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
720 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 720 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PINE BLUFF
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 123...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANT
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD
ACROSS OK. THOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES SOME WITH EWD
EXTENT...INCREASINGLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEAR 60 F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
SRN MO AND AR WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT WILL BE GOVERNED BY
A STRONGER CAP NOTED OVER NE TX/NW LA...AND THE NWD PROGRESS OF THE
WARM FRONT INTO SRN MO.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 125 TORNADO AR MO 100020Z - 100700Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55ENE SGF/SPRINGFIELD MO/ - 30WSW PBF/PINE BLUFF AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /43ENE SGF - 42SSW LIT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 37509118 34009119 34009363 37509373
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 125 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 125
VALID 100535Z - 100700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N GLH TO
40 NE PBF TO 45 E LIT TO 40 SSW JBR.
WW 125 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100700Z.
..JEWELL..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC067-095-147-100700-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON MONROE WOODRUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 125
VALID 100440Z - 100540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PBF
TO 10 ESE LIT TO 25 E BVX.
..GOSS..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-041-043-067-069-079-085-095-117-145-147-100540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS DESHA DREW
JACKSON JEFFERSON LINCOLN
LONOKE MONROE PRAIRIE
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 125
VALID 100245Z - 100340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HOT
TO 25 SSE RUE TO 25 SW FLP TO 35 W UNO TO 25 WSW TBN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 420.
..GOSS..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-005-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-079-085-089-095-103-105-117-119-125-129-135-
137-141-145-147-100340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BRADLEY
CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
FULTON GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON LINCOLN
LONOKE MARION MONROE
OUACHITA PERRY PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SEARCY
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MOC067-091-149-153-203-215-229-100340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DOUGLAS HOWELL OREGON
OZARK SHANNON TEXAS
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 125
VALID 100245Z - 100340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HOT
TO 25 SSE RUE TO 25 SW FLP TO 35 W UNO TO 25 WSW TBN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 420.
..GOSS..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-005-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-079-085-089-095-103-105-117-119-125-129-135-
137-141-145-147-100340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BRADLEY
CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
FULTON GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON LINCOLN
LONOKE MARION MONROE
OUACHITA PERRY PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SEARCY
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MOC067-091-149-153-203-215-229-100340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DOUGLAS HOWELL OREGON
OZARK SHANNON TEXAS
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 125
VALID 100135Z - 100240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-005-009-019-023-025-029-039-041-045-049-051-053-059-063-
065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-105-109-113-115-117-
119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-100240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
CONWAY DALLAS DESHA
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LINCOLN LOGAN
LONOKE MARION MONROE
MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY
PIKE POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MOC043-067-077-091-149-153-203-209-213-215-225-229-100240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS GREENE
HOWELL OREGON OZARK
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.