Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES EAST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 123...WW 125...
DISCUSSION...THOUGH THE 00Z SHV SOUNDING REVEALED A SUBSTANTIAL CAP
IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS NE TX...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY ASCENT ON THE
SRN FRINGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING EWD OVER OK. THE
COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 126 TORNADO AR LA TX 100125Z - 100700Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35WSW TXK/TEXARKANA AR/ - 40E ELD/EL DORADO AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /29WSW TXK - 31E ELD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 33979455 33939212 32499212 32529455
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 126 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 126
VALID 100535Z - 100640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E SHV TO
30 S ELD TO 40 N MLU.
..JEWELL..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 126
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-049-061-073-111-100640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE JACKSON LINCOLN
OUACHITA UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 126
VALID 100440Z - 100540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE SHV
TO 20 SSE ELD TO 20 SW PBF.
..GOSS..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 126
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC139-100540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-100540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN
OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
