Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1050 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MONROE
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL/NRN AR WILL LIKELY
PERSIST AND SPREAD E OF THE MS RIVER OVERNIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EWD PROGRESS OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER WRN
AR. FARTHER S...MORE DISCRETE STORMS HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE FROM CENTRAL/SRN AR INTO NRN LA. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES SLOWLY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SPREAD EWD. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MOST
COMMON THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 127 TORNADO AR LA MO MS TN 100350Z - 101000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NW DYR/DYERSBURG TN/ - 55ESE MLU/MONROE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /45NW DYR - 48ESE MLU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 36508895 32209012 32209219 36509112
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 127 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 127
VALID 100800Z - 100940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MLU TO
50 WNW JAN TO 40 S GWO TO 20 ENE GWO.
..GUYER..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 127
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC041-065-107-100940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN MADISON TENSAS
$$
MSC015-051-097-149-163-100940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL HOLMES MONTGOMERY
WARREN YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 127
VALID 100655Z - 100740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MLU TO
25 SW GLH TO 25 NE GLH TO 35 N DYR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 423
..GUYER..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 127
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC035-041-065-067-083-107-123-100740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON
MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS
WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC015-033-043-051-053-055-071-083-093-097-107-119-125-133-135-
137-149-151-161-163-100740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL DESOTO GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MARSHALL
MONTGOMERY PANOLA QUITMAN
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE
TATE WARREN WASHINGTON
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
TNC033-047-053-075-157-167-100740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT FAYETTE GIBSON
HAYWOOD SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 127
VALID 100535Z - 100640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW MLU
TO 35 S LLQ TO 15 NW GLH TO 45 NNE GLH TO 55 SW MEM TO 50 NE PBF
TO 45 SE BVX TO 5 ESE JBR TO 40 ESE POF.
..JEWELL..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 127
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC017-035-037-077-093-107-111-123-100640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHICOT CRITTENDEN CROSS
LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS
POINSETT ST. FRANCIS
$$
LAC035-041-065-067-083-107-123-100640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON
MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS
WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-015-027-033-043-051-053-055-071-083-093-097-107-119-125-
133-135-137-143-149-151-161-163-100640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL COAHOMA
DESOTO GRENADA HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL MONTGOMERY
PANOLA QUITMAN SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA WARREN WASHINGTON
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
MOC069-155-100640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-075-095-097-131-157-167-100640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HAYWOOD LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 127
VALID 100440Z - 100540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BVX
TO 15 S ARG TO 20 SSW POF.
..GOSS..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 127
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-100540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT CLAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI
PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS
$$
LAC035-041-065-067-083-107-123-100540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON
MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS
WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-015-027-033-043-051-053-055-071-083-093-097-107-119-125-
133-135-137-143-149-151-161-163-100540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL COAHOMA
DESOTO GRENADA HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL MONTGOMERY
PANOLA QUITMAN SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA WARREN WASHINGTON
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
MOC069-155-100540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-075-095-097-131-157-167-100540-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HAYWOOD LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.