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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1050 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FARMINGTON MISSOURI TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING EWD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LIMITED INSTABILITY
EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION NORTH OF A WARM FRONT LYING OVER
EXTREME SERN MO/WRN TN...BUT THE INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...GOSS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 128 SEVERE TSTM IL KY MO 100350Z - 101000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50SW FAM/FARMINGTON MO/ - 55NE PAH/PADUCAH KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /47WSW FAM - 23SW PXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
LAT...LON 38119106 38508805 36758805 36389106
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 128 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 128
VALID 100755Z - 100840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HOP
TO 40 NE PAH TO 40 W EVV TO 25 ENE MVN.
..GUYER..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 128
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC047-191-193-100840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS WAYNE WHITE
$$
KYC035-100840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALLOWAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 128
VALID 100650Z - 100740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S PAH TO
20 NE PAH TO 35 E MDH TO 10 WNW MVN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 422
..GUYER..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 128
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC047-059-065-069-081-151-165-191-193-100740-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON
HARDIN JEFFERSON POPE
SALINE WAYNE WHITE
$$
KYC035-055-083-139-143-157-100740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALLOWAY CRITTENDEN GRAVES
LIVINGSTON LYON MARSHALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 128
VALID 100535Z - 100640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE POF TO
30 SSW CGI TO 5 W CGI TO 30 NW CGI TO 30 SW BLV.
..JEWELL..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 128
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-157-165-
181-189-191-193-199-100640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE
UNION WASHINGTON WAYNE
WHITE WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-035-039-055-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-100640-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
CRITTENDEN FULTON GRAVES
HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON
MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
$$
MOC031-133-143-157-201-100640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PERRY SCOTT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 128
VALID 100440Z - 100540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ARG
TO 10 WNW POF TO 30 SW FAM TO 40 ESE VIH.
..GOSS..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 128
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-157-165-
181-189-191-193-199-100540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE
UNION WASHINGTON WAYNE
WHITE WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-035-039-055-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-100540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
CRITTENDEN FULTON GRAVES
HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON
MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
$$
MOC017-023-031-093-123-133-143-157-186-187-201-207-221-223-
100540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
IRON MADISON MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PERRY STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT STODDARD
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
