Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 126...WW 127...WW
128...WW 129...
DISCUSSION...AN ARCING WEST-TO-EAST LINE OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES MOVING NWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SRN AR
ATTM...AND WILL AFFECT SERN OK AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SRN AND
CENTRAL AR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF THE
ONGOING/ORGANIZED CONVECTION...NWD SHIFT OF THE AREAL THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 18035.
...GOSS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 130 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 022050Z - 030400Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45W MLC/MCALESTER OK/ - 50NE PBF/PINE BLUFF AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /39W MLC - 43E LIT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18035.
LAT...LON 35529656 35339130 34029130 34229656
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 130 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 130
VALID 022335Z - 030040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE PBF TO
35 SE FSM TO 30 ENE ADM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 420.
..GRAMS..04/02/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 130
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC029-033-045-047-071-083-085-095-105-115-117-119-127-131-149-
030040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER
FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN
LONOKE MONROE PERRY
POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI
SCOTT SEBASTIAN YELL
$$
OKC019-029-061-063-069-077-079-085-091-095-099-101-107-111-121-
123-133-135-030040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER COAL HASKELL
HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER
LE FLORE LOVE MCINTOSH
MARSHALL MURRAY MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 130
VALID 022240Z - 022340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..04/02/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 130
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-029-033-041-045-047-051-053-059-069-071-079-083-085-095-
097-105-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-149-022340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CONWAY CRAWFORD
DESHA FAULKNER FRANKLIN
GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LINCOLN
LOGAN LONOKE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY POLK
POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN
YELL
$$
OKC005-013-019-029-061-063-069-077-079-085-091-095-099-101-107-
111-121-123-133-135-022340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COAL HASKELL HUGHES
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL
MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.