Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1050 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 129. WATCH NUMBER 129 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1050 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/NEWD ACROSS WRN
OK WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE
STORMS APPROACH CENTRAL OK AND ENCOUNTER A REMNANT OUTFLOW AIR MASS
AND WEAKER INSTABILITY. FARTHER N INTO KS...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE WARM SECTOR STORMS MOVING NEWD FROM
NW OK...AND THIS RISK WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT IN KS
UNDERCUTS THE STORMS. FARTHER S IN TX...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS
MOVING INTO YOUNG COUNTY AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THOUGH NO STORMS ARE PRESENT ATTM TO THE SW OF THE YOUNG
COUNTY STORM...THE CENTRAL/NW TX AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 131 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 030350Z - 030900Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NW AVK/ALVA OK/ - 70S SPS/WICHITA FALLS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /59NE GAG - 62S SPS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
REPLACES WW 129..KS OK TX
LAT...LON 37029808 32959763 32959936 37029990
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 131 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 131
VALID 030835Z - 030900Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ABI TO
30 NW SPS TO 20 W CHK TO 30 NW OKC.
REMAINDER WW 131 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 030900Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 427.
..EDWARDS..04/03/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 131
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC015-017-031-033-051-067-137-141-030900-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE
COTTON GRADY JEFFERSON
STEPHENS TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-077-237-337-485-503-030900-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER CLAY JACK
MONTAGUE WICHITA YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 131
VALID 030740Z - 030840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW LTS TO
35 NE CSM TO 25 SSE AVK TO 10 NNW END.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 426.
..EDWARDS..04/03/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 131
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC011-015-017-031-033-039-051-067-073-075-093-137-141-149-
030840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
GRADY JEFFERSON KINGFISHER
KIOWA MAJOR STEPHENS
TILLMAN WASHITA
$$
TXC009-023-077-237-337-485-487-503-030840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA
WILBARGER YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 131
VALID 030640Z - 030740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW LTS TO
30 NE CSM TO 25 SSE AVK TO 15 SSE P28.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 426.
..EDWARDS..04/03/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 131
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC003-011-015-017-031-033-039-051-067-073-075-093-137-141-149-
030740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER GRADY JEFFERSON
KINGFISHER KIOWA MAJOR
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
$$
TXC009-023-077-237-337-485-487-503-030740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA
WILBARGER YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 131
VALID 030535Z - 030640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CSM
TO 45 SSW AVK TO 20 WSW AVK TO 35 WNW AVK.
..EDWARDS..04/03/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 131
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-033-097-151-030640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER COMANCHE KIOWA
PRATT
$$
OKC003-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-051-067-073-075-093-137-141-
149-151-030640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY GRADY
JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA
MAJOR STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASHITA WOODS
$$
TXC009-023-077-237-337-485-487-503-030640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA
WILBARGER YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.