Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 855 AM UNTIL 400
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOWLING
GREEN KENTUCKY TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST TO THE LWR OH VLY
THROUGH THE DAY WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN
AND WRN KY. STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND WILL MOVE INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA OF THE
WATCH WITH MEMPHIS VWP INDICATING 70-75KT OF FLOW AT 2KM AGL.
THUS...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED WITH LINE
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS MOVING AT OVER 40KT. TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST NEAR BREAKS IN THE LINE AND ALONG/NEAR RESIDUAL BOUNDARY/WARM
FRONT ACROSS SECTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ALSO LIKELY AS CONVECTION MATURES AND TAPS
GREATER INSTABILITY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 131 TORNADO KY TN 101355Z - 102100Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NW BWG/BOWLING GREEN KY/ - 45SSE MKL/JACKSON TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /19NW BWG - 59WNW MSL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
LAT...LON 37158476 34978676 34979047 37158858
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 131 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 131
VALID 101855Z - 101940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE MSL
TO 25 W BNA TO 45 NW HOP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 431
..SMITH..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC055-059-065-069-165-193-199-101940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON
HARDIN SALINE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC019-037-043-061-077-117-123-129-143-147-163-173-175-101940-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK DUBOIS FLOYD
HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE
PERRY POSEY SCOTT
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
WASHINGTON
$$
KYC001-003-005-009-017-021-027-029-031-033-045-047-049-053-055-
057-059-061-067-073-079-085-087-091-093-097-099-101-103-107-111-
113-123-137-141-149-151-155-163-167-169-171-177-179-181-183-185-
207-209-211-213-215-217-219-223-225-227-229-233-239-101940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON
BARREN BOURBON BOYLE
BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER
CALDWELL CASEY CHRISTIAN
CLARK CLINTON CRITTENDEN
CUMBERLAND DAVIESS EDMONSON
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD
GRAYSON GREEN HANCOCK
HARDIN HARRISON HART
HENDERSON HENRY HOPKINS
JEFFERSON JESSAMINE LARUE
LINCOLN LOGAN MCLEAN
MADISON MARION MEADE
MERCER METCALFE MONROE
MUHLENBERG NELSON NICHOLAS
OHIO OLDHAM RUSSELL
SCOTT SHELBY SIMPSON
SPENCER TAYLOR TODD
TRIMBLE UNION WARREN
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WOODFORD
$$
MSC013-017-057-081-095-115-117-141-101940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA
LEE MONROE PONTOTOC
PRENTISS TISHOMINGO
$$
TNC021-147-101940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEATHAM ROBERTSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 131
VALID 101635Z - 101740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S MKL TO
40 ENE MKL TO 40 WSW HOP TO 10 NE PAH.
..DIAL..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-003-009-031-033-035-047-053-055-057-061-087-099-107-139-
141-143-157-169-171-177-207-213-219-221-227-101740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN BARREN
BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CHRISTIAN CLINTON CRITTENDEN
CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GREEN
HART HOPKINS LIVINGSTON
LOGAN LYON MARSHALL
METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG
RUSSELL SIMPSON TODD
TRIGG WARREN
$$
MSC003-009-093-117-139-141-101740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON MARSHALL
PRENTISS TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
$$
TNC003-005-015-021-023-027-031-037-039-041-043-055-071-077-079-
081-083-085-087-099-101-109-111-117-119-125-133-135-137-141-147-
149-159-161-165-169-181-187-189-101740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BENTON CANNON
CHEATHAM CHESTER CLAY
COFFEE DAVIDSON DECATUR
DEKALB DICKSON GILES
HARDIN HENDERSON HENRY
HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS
JACKSON LAWRENCE LEWIS
MCNAIRY MACON MARSHALL
MAURY MONTGOMERY OVERTON
PERRY PICKETT PUTNAM
ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SMITH
STEWART SUMNER TROUSDALE
WAYNE WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 131
VALID 101535Z - 101640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MEM TO
15 NNW MKL TO 30 NNE DYR TO 35 NNE DYR.
..DIAL..04/10/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-003-009-031-033-035-039-047-053-055-057-061-075-083-087-
099-105-107-139-141-143-145-157-169-171-177-207-213-219-221-227-
101640-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN BARREN
BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CLINTON
CRITTENDEN CUMBERLAND EDMONSON
FULTON GRAVES GREEN
HART HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LOGAN LYON
MCCRACKEN MARSHALL METCALFE
MONROE MUHLENBERG RUSSELL
SIMPSON TODD TRIGG
WARREN
$$
MSC003-009-033-093-117-137-139-141-101640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON DESOTO
MARSHALL PRENTISS TATE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
$$
TNC003-005-015-017-021-023-027-031-037-039-041-043-047-053-055-
069-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-099-101-109-111-113-117-119-125-
131-133-135-137-141-147-149-159-161-165-169-181-183-187-189-
101640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BENTON CANNON
CARROLL CHEATHAM CHESTER
CLAY COFFEE DAVIDSON
DECATUR DEKALB DICKSON
FAYETTE GIBSON GILES
HARDEMAN HARDIN HENDERSON
HENRY HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS JACKSON LAWRENCE
LEWIS MCNAIRY MACON
MADISON MARSHALL MAURY
MONTGOMERY OBION OVERTON
PERRY PICKETT PUTNAM
ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SMITH
STEWART SUMNER TROUSDALE
WAYNE WEAKLEY WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.