Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1210 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
DALLAS TEXAS TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 132...
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ALONG OR JUST N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AIR
MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER
70S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 67-70 F...ENVIRONMENT IS
ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
MOREOVER...CURRENT FWD VAD IS INDICATING 0-1 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 20
KT...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 KT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEEP UPDRAFT
ROTATION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MATURE STORMS CROSSING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY IS ENHANCED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22025.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 133 TORNADO TX 031710Z - 040100Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NNE DAL/DALLAS TX/ - 15ESE TPL/TEMPLE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /51SE ADM - 36S ACT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22025.
LAT...LON 33589536 31059608 31059827 33589761
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 133 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 133
VALID 032235Z - 032340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW TPL
TO 20 WSW PRX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 438.
..GRAMS..04/03/12
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-027-119-145-161-213-223-231-257-277-289-293-309-331-349-
379-395-467-032340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL DELTA
FALLS FREESTONE HENDERSON
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR LEON LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN MILAM NAVARRO
RAINS ROBERTSON VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 133
VALID 032040Z - 032140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW TPL
TO 20 S FTW TO 40 WSW GYI.
..GOSS..04/03/12
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-027-035-085-099-113-119-121-139-145-147-161-181-213-217-
223-231-251-257-277-289-293-309-331-349-379-395-397-439-467-
032140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
COLLIN CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FALLS FANNIN FREESTONE
GRAYSON HENDERSON HILL
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM
NAVARRO RAINS ROBERTSON
ROCKWALL TARRANT VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 133
VALID 031945Z - 032040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW TPL
TO 20 ENE MWL.
..GOSS..04/03/12
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-027-035-085-099-113-119-121-139-145-161-213-217-221-223-
231-251-257-289-293-309-331-349-367-379-395-397-425-439-467-497-
032040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
COLLIN CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FALLS FREESTONE HENDERSON
HILL HOOD HOPKINS
HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN
MILAM NAVARRO PARKER
RAINS ROBERTSON ROCKWALL
SOMERVELL TARRANT VAN ZANDT
WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 133
VALID 031830Z - 031940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W TPL TO
20 NE SEP.
..GOSS..04/03/12
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-027-035-085-099-113-119-121-139-145-161-193-213-217-221-
223-231-251-257-281-289-293-309-331-349-367-379-395-397-425-439-
467-497-031940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
COLLIN CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FALLS FREESTONE HAMILTON
HENDERSON HILL HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM
NAVARRO PARKER RAINS
ROBERTSON ROCKWALL SOMERVELL
TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 133
VALID 031730Z - 031840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..04/03/12
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-027-035-085-099-113-119-121-139-145-161-193-213-217-221-
223-231-251-257-281-289-293-309-331-349-367-379-395-397-425-439-
467-497-031840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
COLLIN CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FALLS FREESTONE HAMILTON
HENDERSON HILL HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM
NAVARRO PARKER RAINS
ROBERTSON ROCKWALL SOMERVELL
TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.