Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 645 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 135 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
HOUSTON TEXAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF MONROE LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 131. WATCH NUMBER 131 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
645 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 132...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF FORCED STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS SHOULD
ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS WW THROUGH THE EVENING...AS INDIVIDUAL STORMS
MOVE MORE RAPIDLY NNE ALONG IT. HEIGHT FALLS/UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING SW TX UPR VORT EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY W OF SQLN...THUS
ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
NEVERTHELESS... COMBINATION OF EXISTING VERY STRONG LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD...AXIS OF RICH MOISTURE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
LINE...AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE INVOF DEVELOPING SFC WAVE IN SRN AR
WILL YIELD A CONTINUED RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THE TORNADOES MAY
BE RAIN-WRAPPED...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 133 TORNADO AR LA TX CW 182345Z - 190700Z
AXIS..135 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30WNW HOU/HOUSTON TX/ - 35S MLU/MONROE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 115NM N/S /22WSW IAH - 30S MLU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
REPLACES WW 131..AR LA TX CW
LAT...LON 31779573 33979202 30059202 27869573
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 133 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 133
VALID 190625Z - 190700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW 7R4
TO 15 SSW PBF.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 133 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
19/07Z.
..KERR..03/19/08
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC009-021-045-055-059-073-097-099-101-190700-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
AVOYELLES CALDWELL IBERIA
LAFAYETTE LA SALLE OUACHITA
ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY
$$
GMZ452-455-190700-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 133
VALID 190535Z - 190640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LCH
TO 20 NNW ELD.
..KERR..03/19/08
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-009-021-039-043-045-049-055-059-061-073-079-097-099-101-
111-113-127-190640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA AVOYELLES CALDWELL
EVANGELINE GRANT IBERIA
JACKSON LAFAYETTE LA SALLE
LINCOLN OUACHITA RAPIDES
ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY
UNION VERMILION WINN
$$
GMZ452-455-190640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 133
VALID 190445Z - 190540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S LCH TO
5 ESE POE TO 35 SSE TXK.
..DIAL..03/19/08
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC139-190540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
LAC001-003-009-013-015-021-027-039-043-045-049-053-055-059-061-
069-073-079-081-097-099-101-111-113-115-119-127-190540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CALDWELL
CLAIBORNE EVANGELINE GRANT
IBERIA JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE LA SALLE LINCOLN
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES
RED RIVER ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN
ST. MARY UNION VERMILION
VERNON WEBSTER WINN
$$
GMZ452-455-190540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 133
VALID 190240Z - 190340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE GLS TO
50 SE LFK TO 10 S GGG TO GGG.
..DIAL..03/19/08
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC139-190340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
LAC001-003-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-031-039-043-045-
049-053-055-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-097-099-101-111-113-115-
119-127-190340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER
CADDO CALCASIEU CALDWELL
CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
EVANGELINE GRANT IBERIA
JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER
SABINE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN
ST. MARY UNION VERMILION
VERNON WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC241-351-361-365-403-405-419-190340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JASPER NEWTON ORANGE
PANOLA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY
$$
GMZ450-452-455-190340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
