Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WALLOPS VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 129...WW 130...WW
131...WW 132...WW 133...
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY ORGANIZING INTO MORE OF A QLCS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/VA...AND THIS CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS CONVECTION PROGRESSES EWD TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST. LOW-MIDLEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT CONTINUED ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. OTHER THAN SOME
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER NEAR-SHORE WATERS /ESP N OF CAPE
HATTERAS/...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INLAND TO
MAINTAIN THE SEVERE STORM RISK TO THE COAST. DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE
THE MOST COMMON RISK WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS...AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MAINLY IN THE WRN
PART OF THE WATCH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A BRIEF SPIN UP OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH CIRCULATIONS IN THE BROADER QLCS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 25035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 134 SEVERE TSTM MD NC SC VA CW 192230Z - 200700Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10NW WAL/WALLOPS VA/ - 25SSE CRE/MYRTLE BEACH SC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /19S SBY - 69SE FLO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 38027441 33347763 33347988 38027679
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 134 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 134
VALID 200140Z - 200240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CRE
TO 10 SSW GSB TO 25 SSE NHK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 544.
..GRAMS..04/20/13
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 134
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC039-045-047-200240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER
$$
NCC013-015-017-019-029-031-041-047-049-053-055-061-065-073-079-
083-091-095-103-107-117-129-133-137-139-141-143-147-177-187-
200240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN
BRUNSWICK CAMDEN CARTERET
CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN
CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN
EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE
HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE
JONES LENOIR MARTIN
NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO
PASQUOTANK PENDER PERQUIMANS
PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON
$$
VAC001-093-115-131-199-550-620-650-700-710-735-740-800-810-
200240-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK ISLE OF WIGHT MATHEWS
NORTHAMPTON YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE FRANKLIN HAMPTON
NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK POQUOSON
PORTSMOUTH SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH
$$
AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-250-252-254-256-ANZ630-631-632-633-
634-635-636-637-638-650-652-654-656-658-200240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK VA TO CAPE HENRY VA INCLUDING
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT
YORK RIVER
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO HAMPTON ROADS
BRIDGE-TUNNEL
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.