Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN TENNESSEE
WESTERN VIRGINIA
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 545 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF BECKLEY WEST VIRGINIA TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 135...
DISCUSSION...A FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD QUICKLY EWD AS A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS NEWD TOWARD
WV/PA. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AT THE SURFACE...IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24050.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 136 SEVERE TSTM NC TN VA WV 192145Z - 200200Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NNE BKW/BECKLEY WV/ - 55S TYS/KNOXVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /39NNE BKW - 40WNW ODF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
LAT...LON 38387987 35028312 35028487 38388173
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 136 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 136
VALID 192340Z - 200040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E CHA TO
35 NW HSS TO 45 S HTS.
..BROYLES..03/19/08
ATTN...WFO...MRX...GSP...RNK...RLX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 136
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC039-043-075-087-099-113-115-173-200040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CLAY GRAHAM
HAYWOOD JACKSON MACON
MADISON SWAIN
$$
TNC019-029-059-063-073-091-155-163-171-179-200040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER COCKE GREENE
HAMBLEN HAWKINS JOHNSON
SEVIER SULLIVAN UNICOI
WASHINGTON
$$
VAC021-027-051-071-167-169-173-185-191-520-200040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAND BUCHANAN DICKENSON
GILES RUSSELL SCOTT
SMYTH TAZEWELL WASHINGTON
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL
$$
WVC005-015-019-025-039-043-045-047-055-059-063-067-081-089-109-
200040-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CLAY FAYETTE
GREENBRIER KANAWHA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCDOWELL MERCER
MINGO MONROE NICHOLAS
RALEIGH SUMMERS WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 136
VALID 192230Z - 192340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/19/08
ATTN...WFO...MRX...GSP...RNK...RLX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 136
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC039-043-075-087-099-113-115-173-192340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CLAY GRAHAM
HAYWOOD JACKSON MACON
MADISON SWAIN
$$
TNC009-019-029-059-063-073-089-091-123-139-155-163-171-179-
192340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CARTER COCKE
GREENE HAMBLEN HAWKINS
JEFFERSON JOHNSON MONROE
POLK SEVIER SULLIVAN
UNICOI WASHINGTON
$$
VAC021-027-051-071-167-169-173-185-191-520-192340-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAND BUCHANAN DICKENSON
GILES RUSSELL SCOTT
SMYTH TAZEWELL WASHINGTON
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL
$$
WVC005-015-019-025-039-043-045-047-055-059-063-067-081-089-109-
192340-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CLAY FAYETTE
GREENBRIER KANAWHA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCDOWELL MERCER
MINGO MONROE NICHOLAS
RALEIGH SUMMERS WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.