Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1120 PM
UNTIL 600 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF NEW
BERN NORTH CAROLINA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNAH
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 135...WW 136...WW 137...
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
EWD TOWARD THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL NEAR THE COAST...BUT COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD AND CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 27040.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 138 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC CW 110320Z - 111000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55N EWN/NEW BERN NC/ - 20SSW SAV/SAVANNAH GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /48WSW ECG - 21SSW SAV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 35867598 31868030 31868234 35867812
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 138 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 138
VALID 110825Z - 110940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE OAJ
TO 25 S ECG.
..GUYER..04/11/09
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC031-055-095-137-177-110940-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTERET DARE HYDE
PAMLICO TYRRELL
$$
AMZ135-110940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PAMLICO SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 138
VALID 110630Z - 110740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW OGB
TO 20 NNW ILM TO 40 E RWI.
..GUYER..04/11/09
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC031-043-103-109-165-251-267-110740-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BULLOCH CANDLER EFFINGHAM
EVANS JENKINS SCREVEN
TATTNALL
$$
NCC013-019-031-049-055-095-103-117-129-133-137-141-177-187-
110740-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET
CRAVEN DARE HYDE
JONES MARTIN NEW HANOVER
ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER
TYRRELL WASHINGTON
$$
SCC005-013-015-019-029-035-043-049-051-053-089-110740-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLENDALE BEAUFORT BERKELEY
CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER
GEORGETOWN HAMPTON HORRY
JASPER WILLIAMSBURG
$$
AMZ135-330-110740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PAMLICO SOUND
CHARLESTON HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 138
VALID 110530Z - 110640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW FLO TO
35 E FLO TO 30 SSE RDU.
..GUYER..04/11/09
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC031-043-103-109-165-251-267-110640-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BULLOCH CANDLER EFFINGHAM
EVANS JENKINS SCREVEN
TATTNALL
$$
NCC013-017-019-031-047-049-055-061-065-079-095-101-103-107-117-
127-129-133-137-141-147-163-177-187-191-195-110640-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK
CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN
DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE
GREENE HYDE JOHNSTON
JONES LENOIR MARTIN
NASH NEW HANOVER ONSLOW
PAMLICO PENDER PITT
SAMPSON TYRRELL WASHINGTON
WAYNE WILSON
$$
SCC005-013-015-019-029-035-041-043-049-051-053-067-089-110640-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLENDALE BEAUFORT BERKELEY
CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER
FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HAMPTON
HORRY JASPER MARION
WILLIAMSBURG
$$
AMZ135-330-110640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PAMLICO SOUND
CHARLESTON HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 138
VALID 110440Z - 110540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE OGB TO
35 E FLO TO 30 SSE RDU.
..GOSS..04/11/09
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC031-043-103-109-165-251-267-110540-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BULLOCH CANDLER EFFINGHAM
EVANS JENKINS SCREVEN
TATTNALL
$$
NCC013-017-019-031-047-049-051-055-061-065-079-095-101-103-107-
117-127-129-133-137-141-147-163-177-187-191-195-110540-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK
CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN
EDGECOMBE GREENE HYDE
JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR
MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER
ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER
PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL
WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON
$$
SCC005-013-015-019-029-035-041-043-049-051-053-067-089-110540-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLENDALE BEAUFORT BERKELEY
CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER
FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HAMPTON
HORRY JASPER MARION
WILLIAMSBURG
$$
AMZ135-330-110540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PAMLICO SOUND
CHARLESTON HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.