Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 440 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
VICHY MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG/AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL MO TO NERN OK. WITH MLCAPES TO 2000
J/KG...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50KT OF SHEAR...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL BUT WIND DAMAGE WILL INCREASE BY THIS
EVENING AS STORMS EVOLVE MORE INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HALES
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 440 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
VICHY MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG/AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL MO TO NERN OK. WITH MLCAPES TO 2000
J/KG...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50KT OF SHEAR...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL BUT WIND DAMAGE WILL INCREASE BY THIS
EVENING AS STORMS EVOLVE MORE INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 138 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 272140Z - 280400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10SSE MKO/MUSKOGEE OK/ - 35NNE VIH/VICHY MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /46SSE TUL - 35ESE COU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 35529637 38599262 38599041 35529423
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 138 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 138
VALID 280340Z - 280400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MKO
TO 25 NNW FYV TO 10 SE SGF TO 30 ESE TBN.
WW 138 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280400Z.
THREAT FOR HAIL WILL PERSIST WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SRN MO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO WW 139. STORM IN
E CNTRL OK WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL NEXT HOUR
OR SO...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO ISOLATED FOR ANOTHER WW IN THIS
REGION.
..DIAL..03/28/08
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-280400-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-043-067-153-209-213-215-229-280400-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS
OZARK STONE TANEY
TEXAS WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-061-077-079-135-280400-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 138
VALID 280240Z - 280340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW MKO
TO 30 N FYV TO 10 SSE SGF TO 40 E SGF TO 15 E VIH TO 15 SSE JEF
TO 10 E JEF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 491
..DIAL..03/28/08
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-280340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-043-055-065-067-071-073-151-153-209-213-215-221-229-
280340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD
DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GASCONADE OSAGE OZARK
STONE TANEY TEXAS
WASHINGTON WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-061-077-079-091-101-121-135-280340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE
PITTSBURG SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 138
VALID 280135Z - 280240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MKO
TO 10 SE SGF TO 40 E SGF TO 15 E VIH TO 15 SSE JEF TO 10 E JEF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 489
..DIAL..03/28/08
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-280240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-043-055-065-067-071-073-151-153-209-213-215-221-229-
280240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD
DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GASCONADE OSAGE OZARK
STONE TANEY TEXAS
WASHINGTON WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-061-077-079-091-101-121-135-280240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE
PITTSBURG SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 138
VALID 280030Z - 280140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MKO
TO 25 E GMJ TO 25 W TBN TO 5 SE JEF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
489.
..GRAMS..03/28/08
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-280140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-043-055-065-067-071-073-105-125-151-153-161-169-209-213-
215-221-225-229-280140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD
DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GASCONADE LACLEDE MARIES
OSAGE OZARK PHELPS
PULASKI STONE TANEY
TEXAS WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-061-077-079-091-101-121-135-280140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE HASKELL
LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH
MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 138
VALID 272335Z - 280040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW MKO
TO 25 WNW SGF TO 45 WNW TBN TO 20 WSW COU.
..DIAL..03/27/08
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-143-280040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-029-043-051-055-059-065-067-071-073-077-105-109-119-125-
131-135-145-151-153-161-167-169-209-213-215-221-225-229-
280040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN
COLE CRAWFORD DALLAS
DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GASCONADE GREENE LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MONITEAU NEWTON
OSAGE OZARK PHELPS
POLK PULASKI STONE
TANEY TEXAS WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-041-091-097-101-107-111-135-145-280040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE DELAWARE
MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE SEQUOYAH
WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.