Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1240 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS TO 15 MILES EAST OF DEL RIO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 140. WATCH NUMBER 140 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1240 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE BIG BEND REGION NNE ACROSS THE WRN HILL COUNTRY
INTO WRN N TX AS LEAD WAVE OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NM UPR
LOW OVERSPREAD NWRN EDGE OF QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN. STORMS LIKELY
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT...BUT
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE LIKELY WILL EXIST FOR SVR HAIL GIVEN PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS. SOME THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR BOWING
SEGMENTS...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR ANY ASSOCIATED SVR WIND THREAT AT
THE SFC WILL BE MITIGATED BY LOW LVL STABLE LAYER.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 141 SEVERE TSTM TX 120540Z - 121300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NW MWL/MINERAL WELLS TX/ - 15E DRT/DEL RIO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /51S SPS - 5E DLF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21040.
REPLACES WW 140..TX
LAT...LON 33139719 29369943 29360191 33139979
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 141 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 141
VALID 120925Z - 121040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W DRT TO
20 WSW JCT TO 55 S BWD TO 25 N MWL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 449
..GUYER..04/12/09
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 141
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-093-137-143-171-193-221-265-271-281-299-333-367-385-425-
463-465-497-121040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA COMANCHE EDWARDS
ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON
HOOD KERR KINNEY
LAMPASAS LLANO MILLS
PARKER REAL SOMERVELL
UVALDE VAL VERDE WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 141
VALID 120715Z - 120840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..04/12/09
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 141
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-049-059-081-083-093-095-105-133-137-143-171-193-221-235-
237-253-265-267-271-281-299-307-319-327-333-353-363-367-385-399-
411-413-417-425-429-435-441-447-451-463-465-497-503-120840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BROWN CALLAHAN
COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE
CONCHO CROCKETT EASTLAND
EDWARDS ERATH GILLESPIE
HAMILTON HOOD IRION
JACK JONES KERR
KIMBLE KINNEY LAMPASAS
LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON
MENARD MILLS NOLAN
PALO PINTO PARKER REAL
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS
SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
TOM GREEN UVALDE VAL VERDE
WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.