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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
JACKSON TENNESSEE TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY ALONG A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM A LOW NEAR LIT TO NORTH OF MEM. A
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. DEEP EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL POSE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 141 TORNADO AR MS TN 272050Z - 280400Z
AXIS..35 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50ESE MKL/JACKSON TN/ - 15S LIT/LITTLE ROCK AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 30NM N/S /48NW MSL - 11SSW LIT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 34818809 34009223 35009223 35838809
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 141 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 141
VALID 280333Z - 280440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E PBF TO
20 NW UOX TO 30 SSW MKL TO 10 N MKL.
WW HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME TO 08Z AND ALSO EXTENDED TO
LEE/ITAWAMBA/MONROE COUNTIES MS. OTHERWISE...FOR ADDITIONAL
..EDWARDS..04/28/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 141
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-009-013-017-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-135-
139-141-145-161-280440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW DESOTO ITAWAMBA
LAFAYETTE LEE MARSHALL
MONROE PANOLA PONTOTOC
PRENTISS QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC023-039-047-069-071-077-109-113-280440-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER DECATUR FAYETTE
HARDEMAN HARDIN HENDERSON
MCNAIRY MADISON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 141
VALID 280235Z - 280340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW GLH
TO 10 NNE MEM TO 25 S DYR.
..ROGERS..04/28/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 141
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-009-013-017-027-071-093-107-115-117-119-135-137-139-141-
145-161-280340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA LAFAYETTE
MARSHALL PANOLA PONTOTOC
PRENTISS QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE
TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
UNION YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC023-039-047-069-071-075-077-109-113-280340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER DECATUR FAYETTE
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON MCNAIRY MADISON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 141
VALID 280115Z - 280240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PBF
TO 60 WSW MEM TO 35 N MEM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 569
..ROGERS..04/28/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 141
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-035-077-107-280240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CRITTENDEN LEE
PHILLIPS
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-071-093-107-115-117-119-135-137-139-
141-143-145-161-280240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO
LAFAYETTE MARSHALL PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC023-039-047-069-071-075-077-109-113-157-167-280240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER DECATUR FAYETTE
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON MCNAIRY MADISON
SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 141
VALID 272355Z - 280040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W PBF TO
40 SE BVX.
..ROGERS..04/27/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 141
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-035-037-069-077-095-107-117-123-147-280040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CRITTENDEN CROSS
JEFFERSON LEE MONROE
PHILLIPS PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS
WOODRUFF
$$
MSC003-009-027-033-071-093-107-117-119-137-139-141-143-145-
280040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON COAHOMA
DESOTO LAFAYETTE MARSHALL
PANOLA PRENTISS QUITMAN
TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
TUNICA UNION
$$
TNC023-039-047-069-071-075-077-109-113-157-167-280040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER DECATUR FAYETTE
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON MCNAIRY MADISON
SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 141
VALID 272230Z - 272340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..04/27/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 141
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-035-037-069-077-085-095-107-117-123-147-272340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CRITTENDEN CROSS
JEFFERSON LEE LONOKE
MONROE PHILLIPS PRAIRIE
ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF
$$
MSC003-009-027-033-071-093-107-117-119-137-139-141-143-145-
272340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON COAHOMA
DESOTO LAFAYETTE MARSHALL
PANOLA PRENTISS QUITMAN
TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
TUNICA UNION
$$
TNC023-039-047-069-071-075-077-109-113-157-167-272340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER DECATUR FAYETTE
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON MCNAIRY MADISON
SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.