Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1025 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF DES
MOINES IOWA TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUBUQUE IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INCREASING IN NUMBER ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...WHICH LIKELY WILL STRENGTHEN ON THE NOSE
OF AN INTENSIFYING 850 MB JET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL IN
STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SMALL
STORM CLUSTER...WITH SOME INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WHILE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 145 SEVERE TSTM IA IL WI 300325Z - 301000Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
60W DSM/DES MOINES IA/ - 30NE DBQ/DUBUQUE IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /46ENE OVR - 26NE DBQ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 42549483 43729030 41689030 40509483
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 145 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 145
VALID 300735Z - 300840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CID
TO 30 N OXV TO 45 N ALO.
..SMITH..04/30/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC015-085-161-177-300840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND
STEPHENSON
$$
IAC005-011-013-017-019-023-031-043-045-055-061-065-075-095-097-
099-103-105-113-127-139-157-163-171-191-300840-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BENTON BLACK HAWK
BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER
CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON
DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE
GRUNDY IOWA JACKSON
JASPER JOHNSON JONES
LINN MARSHALL MUSCATINE
POWESHIEK SCOTT TAMA
WINNESHIEK
$$
WIC023-043-103-300840-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD GRANT RICHLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 145
VALID 300545Z - 300640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..04/30/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC015-085-161-177-300640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND
STEPHENSON
$$
IAC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-025-027-029-031-033-
037-039-043-045-047-049-053-055-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-
081-083-089-091-095-097-099-103-105-107-113-115-117-121-123-125-
127-131-135-139-151-153-157-159-161-163-169-171-173-175-179-181-
183-185-187-191-197-300640-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS ALLAMAKEE
AUDUBON BENTON BLACK HAWK
BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN
BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL
CASS CEDAR CERRO GORDO
CHICKASAW CLARKE CLAYTON
CLINTON CRAWFORD DALLAS
DECATUR DELAWARE DUBUQUE
FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN
GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN
HOWARD HUMBOLDT IOWA
JACKSON JASPER JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LINN
LOUISA LUCAS MADISON
MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL
MITCHELL MONROE MUSCATINE
POCAHONTAS POLK POWESHIEK
RINGGOLD SAC SCOTT
STORY TAMA TAYLOR
UNION WAPELLO WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WEBSTER
WINNESHIEK WRIGHT
$$
WIC023-043-103-300640-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD GRANT RICHLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 145
VALID 300432Z - 300540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..04/30/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC015-085-161-177-300540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND
STEPHENSON
$$
IAC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-025-027-029-031-033-
037-039-043-045-047-049-053-055-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-
081-083-089-091-095-097-099-103-105-107-113-115-117-121-123-125-
127-131-135-139-151-153-157-159-161-163-169-171-173-175-179-181-
183-185-187-191-197-300540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS ALLAMAKEE
AUDUBON BENTON BLACK HAWK
BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN
BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL
CASS CEDAR CERRO GORDO
CHICKASAW CLARKE CLAYTON
CLINTON CRAWFORD DALLAS
DECATUR DELAWARE DUBUQUE
FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN
GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN
HOWARD HUMBOLDT IOWA
JACKSON JASPER JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LINN
LOUISA LUCAS MADISON
MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL
MITCHELL MONROE MUSCATINE
POCAHONTAS POLK POWESHIEK
RINGGOLD SAC SCOTT
STORY TAMA TAYLOR
UNION WAPELLO WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WEBSTER
WINNESHIEK WRIGHT
$$
WIC023-043-103-300540-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD GRANT RICHLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.