Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 830 PM UNTIL
300 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SLIDELL
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 145. WATCH NUMBER 145 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
830 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED
BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD/NEWD
TOWARD WRN/SWRN AL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SURFACE MOIST
SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS MS/AL IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NWD FROM NW MS TOWARD WRN TN...AND AT
LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MID-UPPER
60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. THE N EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL
COINCIDE WITH A ZONE OF STRONG WAA WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHERE A 50-60 KT LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 146 TORNADO AL LA MS CW 130130Z - 130800Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60NNE MEI/MERIDIAN MS/ - 15SSW ASD/SLIDELL LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /23SSE IGB - 20ENE MSY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
REPLACES WW 145..LA MS CW
LAT...LON 33118705 30138866 30139116 33118965
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 146 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 146
VALID 130535Z - 130640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE BTR
TO 15 NNE PIB TO 45 WSW SEM.
..GUYER..04/13/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC025-097-129-130640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE MOBILE WASHINGTON
$$
LAC103-117-130640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ST. TAMMANY WASHINGTON
$$
MSC035-039-041-045-047-059-067-073-109-111-131-153-130640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FORREST GEORGE GREENE
HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON
JONES LAMAR PEARL RIVER
PERRY STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ530-130640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 146
VALID 130435Z - 130540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BTR TO
15 WSW TCL.
..KERR..04/13/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC023-025-063-065-091-097-119-129-130540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW CLARKE GREENE
HALE MARENGO MOBILE
SUMTER WASHINGTON
$$
LAC005-063-103-105-117-130540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION LIVINGSTON ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON
$$
MSC035-039-041-045-047-059-067-073-109-111-131-147-153-130540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FORREST GEORGE GREENE
HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON
JONES LAMAR PEARL RIVER
PERRY STONE WALTHALL
WAYNE
$$
GMZ530-130540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 146
VALID 130350Z - 130440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BTR TO
35 S CBM.
..KERR..04/13/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC023-025-063-065-091-097-119-129-130440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW CLARKE GREENE
HALE MARENGO MOBILE
SUMTER WASHINGTON
$$
LAC005-063-103-105-117-130440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION LIVINGSTON ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON
$$
MSC023-031-035-039-041-045-047-059-065-067-073-091-109-111-131-
147-153-130440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES LAMAR MARION
PEARL RIVER PERRY STONE
WALTHALL WAYNE
$$
GMZ530-130440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 146
VALID 130235Z - 130340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/13/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC023-025-063-065-091-097-119-129-130340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW CLARKE GREENE
HALE MARENGO MOBILE
SUMTER WASHINGTON
$$
LAC005-033-037-047-063-091-103-105-117-121-130340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA
IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA
ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE
$$
MSC005-023-031-035-039-041-045-047-059-061-065-067-073-075-077-
085-091-101-109-111-113-127-129-131-147-153-130340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE CLARKE COVINGTON
FORREST GEORGE GREENE
HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LINCOLN MARION NEWTON
PEARL RIVER PERRY PIKE
SIMPSON SMITH STONE
WALTHALL WAYNE
$$
GMZ530-130340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.