Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1105 PM UNTIL
500 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MONTGOMERY ALABAMA TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...
DISCUSSION...A LINEAR MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD FROM SE MS INTO SW/SRN AL ALONG THE WARM
FRONT/NRN EDGE OF THE SURFACE MOIST SECTOR. THOUGH THE LINEAR
CONFIGURATION OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS
QUITE STRONG AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 147 TORNADO AL FL CW 130405Z - 131000Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NNW MGM/MONTGOMERY AL/ - 25WSW PNS/PENSACOLA FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /19NNW MGM - 47ESE SJI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 32498555 30328665 30328848 32498744
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 147 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 147
VALID 130535Z - 130640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..04/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 147
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-013-035-039-041-047-051-053-085-099-101-105-131-
130640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER
CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW
DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA
LOWNDES MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY WILCOX
$$
FLC033-091-113-130640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
GMZ630-130640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.