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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM MDT WED MAY 8 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
THE OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM
UNTIL 900 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GOODLAND KANSAS TO 10 MILES EAST OF DALHART TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE CO
EXPECTED TO MOVE/EXPAND ENE THROUGH THE AFTN...SUPPORTED BY LOW-LVL
ENE FLOW AND DIFFLUENT SW WINDS ALOFT. COOL MID-LVL TEMPS AND STEEP
LOW MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST RISK FOR SVR HAIL AS STORMS ORGANIZE
INTO ONE OR TWO BROKEN BANDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 148 SEVERE TSTM CO KS OK TX 081925Z - 090300Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NE GLD/GOODLAND KS/ - 10E DHT/DALHART TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /16NE GLD - 57NW AMA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 39560020 36000120 36000352 39560265
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 148 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 148
VALID 090115Z - 090240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DDC
TO 25 N GCK TO 45 S MCK.
..LEITMAN..05/09/13
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC063-101-179-090240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOVE LANE SHERIDAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 148
VALID 090025Z - 090140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BGD
TO 5 NE LBL TO 10 S GCK TO 30 NW GCK TO 45 ENE GLD.
..LEITMAN..05/09/13
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC055-063-069-081-101-171-175-179-090140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEY GOVE GRAY
HASKELL LANE SCOTT
SEWARD SHERIDAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 148
VALID 082325Z - 090040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E DHT TO
5 SSW GUY TO 35 NW LBL TO 20 NE GLD.
..LEITMAN..05/08/13
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC055-063-067-069-081-093-101-109-171-175-179-189-193-203-
090040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEY GOVE GRANT
GRAY HASKELL KEARNY
LANE LOGAN SCOTT
SEWARD SHERIDAN STEVENS
THOMAS WICHITA
$$
OKC139-090040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
$$
TXC421-090040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 148
VALID 082225Z - 082340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DHT TO 40 NE
SPD TO 20 NW GLD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 604.
..LEITMAN..05/08/13
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC055-063-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-109-129-171-175-179-181-
187-189-193-199-203-082340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEY GOVE GRANT
GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON
HASKELL KEARNY LANE
LOGAN MORTON SCOTT
SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN
STANTON STEVENS THOMAS
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
OKC139-082340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
$$
TXC421-082340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 148
VALID 082140Z - 082240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..05/08/13
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-061-063-099-082240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
KIOWA KIT CARSON PROWERS
$$
KSC055-063-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-109-129-171-175-179-181-
187-189-193-199-203-082240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEY GOVE GRANT
GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON
HASKELL KEARNY LANE
LOGAN MORTON SCOTT
SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN
STANTON STEVENS THOMAS
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
OKC025-139-082240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC111-205-421-082240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HARTLEY SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 148
VALID 082045Z - 082140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..05/08/13
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-061-063-099-082140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
KIOWA KIT CARSON PROWERS
$$
KSC055-063-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-109-129-171-175-179-181-
187-189-193-199-203-082140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEY GOVE GRANT
GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON
HASKELL KEARNY LANE
LOGAN MORTON SCOTT
SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN
STANTON STEVENS THOMAS
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
OKC025-139-082140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC111-205-421-082140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HARTLEY SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.