Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 230 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE
ALABAMA TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF TROY ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 146...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147. WATCH NUMBER 146 147
WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 230 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...LEWP-CONTAINING SQLN EXPECTED TO EDGE SLOWLY E THROUGH
MID MORNING...DRIVEN LARGELY BY VEERED LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS LA/WRN
MS. INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LVL FLOW AHEAD OF LINE...PERSISTENCE OF
STRONG/DEEP-VEERING WIND FIELD...AND SELY COMPONENT TO NEAR-SFC FLOW
SUGGEST CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LEWPS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. SHALLOWER CONVECTION
IN CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW AHEAD OF SQLN MAY ALSO PRODUCE A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 148 TORNADO AL FL GA MS CW 130730Z - 131500Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30S MOB/MOBILE AL/ - 30NNE TOI/TROY AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /30S SJI - 25E MGM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
REPLACES WW 146..AL LA MS CW
REPLACES WW 147..AL FL CW
LAT...LON 30238983 32258744 32258419 30238666
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 148 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 148
VALID 131345Z - 131440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB
TO 30 ENE MOB TO 25 SSE GZH TO 30 NNE CEW TO 20 W DHN TO 5 WNW
DHN TO 20 ENE DHN.
..BROYLES..04/13/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...FFC...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-061-069-131440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN GENEVA HOUSTON
$$
FLC005-013-033-059-063-091-113-131-133-131440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-095-099-177-201-253-273-131440-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN DOUGHERTY
EARLY LEE MILLER
SEMINOLE TERRELL
$$
GMZ630-131440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 148
VALID 131245Z - 131340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE GPT
TO 30 W MOB TO 25 SSE TOI TO 45 SW MCN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 464
..GUYER..04/13/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...FFC...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-031-039-045-053-061-067-069-097-131340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN COFFEE COVINGTON
DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE
$$
FLC005-013-033-059-063-091-113-131-133-131340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-061-095-099-177-201-239-243-253-259-273-307-131340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DOUGHERTY EARLY LEE
MILLER QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SEMINOLE STEWART TERRELL
WEBSTER
$$
GMZ630-131340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 148
VALID 131155Z - 131240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ASD
TO 30 WSW GZH TO 25 ENE TOI TO 15 S CSG.
..GUYER..04/13/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...FFC...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-005-031-039-045-053-061-067-069-097-109-131240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BARBOUR COFFEE
COVINGTON DALE ESCAMBIA
GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON
MOBILE PIKE
$$
FLC005-013-033-059-063-091-113-131-133-131240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-053-061-095-099-177-197-201-239-243-253-259-273-307-
131240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE
CLAY DOUGHERTY EARLY
LEE MARION MILLER
QUITMAN RANDOLPH SEMINOLE
STEWART TERRELL WEBSTER
$$
MSC059-131240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON
$$
GMZ630-131240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 148
VALID 131030Z - 131140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PIB TO
30 NNE TOI.
..GUYER..04/13/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...FFC...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-005-011-013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-087-097-
099-109-113-131140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK
BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY
HOUSTON MACON MOBILE
MONROE PIKE RUSSELL
$$
FLC033-059-091-113-131-131140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON
$$
GAC053-061-197-215-239-243-259-307-131140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHATTAHOOCHEE CLAY MARION
MUSCOGEE QUITMAN RANDOLPH
STEWART WEBSTER
$$
MSC039-045-047-059-131-131140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE HANCOCK HARRISON
JACKSON STONE
$$
GMZ630-131140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.