Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
TYLER TEXAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 150...
DISCUSSION...E CNTRL TX MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/SUSTAINED
STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY ESE THROUGH LATE EVE. SYSTEM WILL BE
MAINTAINED BY PERSISTENT...MOIST SSELY 0-1 KM FLOW BENEATH 35-40 KT
SW FLOW AHEAD OF S CNTRL TX UPR IMPULSE. SYSTEM MAY SOMEWHAT
ACCELERATE WITH EWD EXTENT...AND BE AUGMENTED BY ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH ITS N AND S ENDS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DMGG
WIND...SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 151 SEVERE TSTM LA TX CW 092035Z - 100300Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10NE TYR/TYLER TX/ - 30SSW BPT/PORT ARTHUR TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /27W GGG - 64ESE IAH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
LAT...LON 32439365 29549262 29549579 32439691
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 151 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 151
VALID 100140Z - 100240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE HOU
TO 20 SE LFK TO 10 NE GGG.
..HART..05/10/13
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 151
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC011-019-023-031-085-115-100240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
DE SOTO SABINE VERNON
$$
TXC005-071-199-241-245-291-351-361-365-403-405-419-457-100240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHAMBERS HARDIN
JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY
NEWTON ORANGE PANOLA
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
TYLER
$$
GMZ335-430-432-100240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
SABINE LAKE
CALCASIEU LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 151
VALID 100100Z - 100240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE CLL
TO 35 E UTS TO 5 E LFK TO 10 NW GGG.
..HART..05/10/13
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 151
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC011-019-023-031-085-115-100240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
DE SOTO SABINE VERNON
$$
TXC005-071-183-199-201-241-245-291-339-347-351-361-365-373-401-
403-405-407-419-457-473-100240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHAMBERS GREGG
HARDIN HARRIS JASPER
JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE
PANOLA POLK RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO
SHELBY TYLER WALLER
$$
GMZ335-430-432-100240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
SABINE LAKE
CALCASIEU LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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