Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 420 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 150...WW 151...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR A NNE-SSW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THE LARGE MCS OVER THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALSO APPROACHING THIS AREA FROM
THE W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST W OF THE MS
RIVER. A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SPEED
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 152 SEVERE TSTM AL LA MS 132120Z - 140100Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60NNE PIB/PINE BELT MS/ - 30ESE BTR/BATON ROUGE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM E/W /10SW MEI - 31NW MSY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 32278816 30368993 30369144 32278970
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 152 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 152
VALID 140030Z - 140100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
PARTS OF WW 152 COULD BE EXTENDED LOCALLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...
OTHERWISE WW 152 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 14/01Z.
..KERR..04/14/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC023-140100-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW
$$
LAC033-037-063-091-103-105-117-140100-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON
ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
WASHINGTON
$$
MSC005-023-031-035-061-065-067-073-075-077-085-091-101-109-111-
113-127-129-147-153-140100-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE CLARKE COVINGTON
FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARION
NEWTON PEARL RIVER PERRY
PIKE SIMPSON SMITH
WALTHALL WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 152
VALID 132330Z - 140040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/13/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC023-140040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW
$$
LAC033-037-063-091-103-105-117-140040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON
ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
WASHINGTON
$$
MSC005-023-031-035-061-065-067-073-075-077-085-091-101-109-111-
113-127-129-147-153-140040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE CLARKE COVINGTON
FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARION
NEWTON PEARL RIVER PERRY
PIKE SIMPSON SMITH
WALTHALL WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 152
VALID 132235Z - 132340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/13/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC023-132340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW
$$
LAC033-037-063-091-103-105-117-132340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON
ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
WASHINGTON
$$
MSC005-023-031-035-061-065-067-073-075-077-085-091-101-109-111-
113-127-129-147-153-132340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE CLARKE COVINGTON
FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARION
NEWTON PEARL RIVER PERRY
PIKE SIMPSON SMITH
WALTHALL WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.