Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FLORIDA
EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL
200 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 150. WATCH NUMBER 150 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
655 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 151...WW 152...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL THROUGH TONIGHT. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THIS EVENING...AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW COULD ACCOMPANY THE LARGE MCS AND
ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX OVER THE NE GULF. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ROTATING STORMS
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND WHERE INLAND DISCRETE STORMS
INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT E COAST SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING ACROSS NE
FL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 153 TORNADO FL GA CW 132255Z - 140600Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
60SW TLH/TALLAHASSEE FL/ - 25NNE SGJ/ST AUGUSTINE FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /59SW TLH - 18E CRG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
REPLACES WW 150..FL GA CW
LAT...LON 30518505 31038116 29578116 29058505
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 153 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 153
VALID 140335Z - 140440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW SGJ
TO 10 SE SGJ.
..KERR..04/14/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 153
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC035-140440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FLAGLER
$$
AMZ452-454-140440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 153
VALID 140240Z - 140340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S AAF TO
20 ENE CTY TO 30 E JAX.
..KERR..04/14/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 153
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-007-019-035-075-083-089-107-109-140340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BRADFORD CLAY
FLAGLER LEVY MARION
NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS
$$
AMZ452-454-140340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 153
VALID 140135Z - 140240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW AAF TO
30 E VLD.
..KERR..04/14/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 153
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-029-031-035-037-041-047-067-075-079-083-
089-107-109-121-123-125-140240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE
DUVAL FLAGLER FRANKLIN
GILCHRIST HAMILTON LAFAYETTE
LEVY MADISON MARION
NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION
$$
GAC039-049-101-140240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CHARLTON ECHOLS
$$
AMZ450-452-454-GMZ730-755-765-140240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 153
VALID 140030Z - 140140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/14/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 153
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-013-019-023-029-031-035-037-039-041-045-047-065-
067-073-075-077-079-083-089-107-109-121-123-125-129-140140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CALHOUN CLAY COLUMBIA
DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER
FRANKLIN GADSDEN GILCHRIST
GULF HAMILTON JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LEON LEVY
LIBERTY MADISON MARION
NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION
WAKULLA
$$
GAC027-039-049-065-101-173-185-299-140140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKS CAMDEN CHARLTON
CLINCH ECHOLS LANIER
LOWNDES WARE
$$
AMZ450-452-454-GMZ730-755-765-140140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.