Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF MCALESTER
OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FLIPPIN ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 153...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG AN AXIS
FROM WESTERN NORTH TX INTO EASTERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT EARLY...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 154 TORNADO AR OK 032050Z - 040300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35W MLC/MCALESTER OK/ - 40SE FLP/FLIPPIN AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /30W MLC - 53WSW ARG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 35599640 36509197 35069197 34159640
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 154 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 154
VALID 040040Z - 040140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-023-029-033-045-047-049-065-071-083-087-089-
101-105-115-127-129-131-137-141-143-149-040140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN
FULTON IZARD JOHNSON
LOGAN MADISON MARION
NEWTON PERRY POPE
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
YELL
$$
OKC001-021-023-061-077-079-091-101-107-111-121-127-135-040140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 154
VALID 032335Z - 040040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 544
..HURLBUT..04/03/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-023-029-033-045-047-049-065-071-083-087-089-
101-105-115-127-129-131-137-141-143-149-040040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN
FULTON IZARD JOHNSON
LOGAN MADISON MARION
NEWTON PERRY POPE
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
YELL
$$
OKC001-021-023-061-077-079-091-101-107-111-121-127-135-040040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 154
VALID 032235Z - 032340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..04/03/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-023-029-033-045-047-049-065-071-083-087-089-
101-105-115-127-129-131-137-141-143-149-032340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN
FULTON IZARD JOHNSON
LOGAN MADISON MARION
NEWTON PERRY POPE
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
YELL
$$
OKC001-021-023-061-077-079-091-101-107-111-121-127-135-032340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 154
VALID 032135Z - 032240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..04/03/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-023-029-033-045-047-049-065-071-083-087-089-
101-105-115-127-129-131-137-141-143-149-032240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN
FULTON IZARD JOHNSON
LOGAN MADISON MARION
NEWTON PERRY POPE
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
YELL
$$
OKC001-021-023-061-077-079-091-101-107-111-121-127-135-032240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.