Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF
GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NM APPROACHES REGION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE MUCAPE
VALUES...AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST A RISK OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES COULD ALSO INCREASE THIS EVENING WHEN AN UPGRADE TO A
TORNADO WATCH MIGHT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 155 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 161940Z - 170300Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20N GUY/GUYMON OK/ - 50SSE LBB/LUBBOCK TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /26W LBL - 47SSE LBB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 36950005 32990011 32990287 36950294
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 155 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 155
VALID 170140Z - 170240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CDS TO
55 ENE CVS TO 35 ENE HOB.
..MEAD..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 155
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-170240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-065-079-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-
357-359-369-375-381-393-421-483-501-170240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH DALLAM
DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY
HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL
HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE
OCHILTREE OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 155
VALID 170040Z - 170140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CDS TO
50 ENE CVS TO 40 ENE HOB.
..MEAD..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 155
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-170140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-065-079-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-
357-359-369-375-381-393-421-483-501-170140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH DALLAM
DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY
HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL
HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE
OCHILTREE OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 155
VALID 162355Z - 170040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CDS TO
50 ENE CVS TO 40 ENE HOB.
..MEAD..04/16/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 155
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-170040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-065-079-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-
357-359-369-375-381-393-421-483-501-170040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH DALLAM
DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY
HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL
HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE
OCHILTREE OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 155
VALID 162230Z - 162340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CDS TO
50 ENE CVS TO 40 ENE HOB.
..MEAD..04/16/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 155
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-162340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-065-079-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-
357-359-369-375-381-393-421-483-501-162340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH DALLAM
DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY
HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL
HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE
OCHILTREE OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 155
VALID 162150Z - 162240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CDS
TO 50 ENE CVS TO 40 ENE HOB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 484.
..MEAD..04/16/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 155
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-162240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-065-079-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-
357-359-369-375-381-393-421-483-501-162240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH DALLAM
DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY
HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL
HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE
OCHILTREE OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 155
VALID 162030Z - 162140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..04/16/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 155
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-162140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-087-101-107-111-117-125-129-153-
169-179-189-191-195-205-211-219-233-263-269-279-295-303-305-341-
345-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-433-437-445-483-501-162140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DALLAM DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GARZA GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
KENT KING LAMB
LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY
WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.