Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF COTULLA TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TX THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS A STRONGER FRONTAL
SURGE SPREADING SEWD LATER TODAY/TONIGHT WILL HELP TO FOCUS STORMS
AMIDST POCKETS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY. STORMS ALSO
INITIATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN COAHUILA MEXICO SHOULD TRACK
EWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND FURTHER POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND. SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG
WITH INTENSE HIGH LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING MASS EVACUATION AND UPDRAFT
POTENCY. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND A POSSIBLY EVOLVING
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
ANY DISCRETE CELL FORMING PREFERENTIALLY ON/ALONG REMNANT AND
STORM-SCALE BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 156 SEVERE TSTM TX 101935Z - 110300Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
25WNW SJT/SAN ANGELO TX/ - 35ENE COT/COTULLA TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM EITHER SIDE /23WNW SJT - 61SSW SAT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
LAT...LON 32319968 29449751 27829983 30700208
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 156 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 156
VALID 110240Z - 110300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE DRT
TO 45 ENE COT TO 35 SSE BAZ TO 25 E BAZ.
WW 156 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 110300Z.
..PETERS..05/11/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 156
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC021-055-123-127-149-177-255-285-287-323-110300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BASTROP CALDWELL DEWITT
DIMMIT FAYETTE GONZALES
KARNES LAVACA LEE
MAVERICK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 156
VALID 110140Z - 110240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DRT
TO 30 SSW SAT TO 10 SSE SAT TO 30 W AUS.
..PETERS..05/11/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 156
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-021-055-091-123-127-149-163-177-187-209-255-285-287-323-
453-491-493-507-110240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BASTROP CALDWELL
COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT
FAYETTE FRIO GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES
LAVACA LEE MAVERICK
TRAVIS WILLIAMSON WILSON
ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 156
VALID 110035Z - 110140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE 6R6
TO 45 SE JCT TO 35 WNW AUS.
..PETERS..05/11/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 156
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-177-187-
209-255-259-265-271-285-287-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-493-507-
110140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEXAR BLANCO BURNET
CALDWELL COMAL DEWITT
DIMMIT EDWARDS FAYETTE
FRIO GONZALES GUADALUPE
HAYS KARNES KENDALL
KERR KINNEY LAVACA
LEE MAVERICK MEDINA
REAL TRAVIS UVALDE
VAL VERDE WILLIAMSON WILSON
ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 156
VALID 102340Z - 110040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W SJT TO
10 W JCT TO JCT TO 35 ENE JCT TO 25 S BWD.
..PETERS..05/10/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 156
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-105-123-127-137-149-163-171-
177-187-209-235-255-259-265-267-271-285-287-299-319-323-325-385-
411-413-435-453-463-465-491-493-507-110040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEXAR BLANCO BURNET
CALDWELL COMAL CROCKETT
DEWITT DIMMIT EDWARDS
FAYETTE FRIO GILLESPIE
GONZALES GUADALUPE HAYS
IRION KARNES KENDALL
KERR KIMBLE KINNEY
LAVACA LEE LLANO
MASON MAVERICK MEDINA
REAL SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SUTTON TRAVIS UVALDE
VAL VERDE WILLIAMSON WILSON
ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 156
VALID 102240Z - 102340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 625.
..PETERS..05/10/13
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 156
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-029-031-049-053-055-083-091-095-105-123-127-137-
149-163-171-177-187-209-235-255-259-265-267-271-285-287-299-307-
319-323-325-327-385-399-411-413-435-451-453-463-465-491-493-507-
102340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEXAR BLANCO BROWN
BURNET CALDWELL COLEMAN
COMAL CONCHO CROCKETT
DEWITT DIMMIT EDWARDS
FAYETTE FRIO GILLESPIE
GONZALES GUADALUPE HAYS
IRION KARNES KENDALL
KERR KIMBLE KINNEY
LAVACA LEE LLANO
MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK
MEDINA MENARD REAL
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SUTTON TOM GREEN TRAVIS
UVALDE VAL VERDE WILLIAMSON
WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.