Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM MDT THU APR 16 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
AKRON COLORADO TO 25 MILES WEST OF ELKHART KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 155...
DISCUSSION...NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 17030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 156 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 162025Z - 170300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NW AKO/AKRON CO/ - 25W EHA/ELKHART KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /20NW AKO - 62ESE TBE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 17030.
LAT...LON 40380234 36990126 36990344 40380462
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 156 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 156
VALID 170055Z - 170140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE DEN
TO 50 NNW LAA TO 5 W EHA.
..SMITH..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 156
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-061-089-099-170140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
KIOWA OTERO PROWERS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 156
VALID 162355Z - 170040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE DEN
TO 15 WNW GLD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 486
..SMITH..04/16/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 156
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-039-061-063-073-089-099-170040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA
KIT CARSON LINCOLN OTERO
PROWERS
$$
KSC071-075-129-187-199-170040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREELEY HAMILTON MORTON
STANTON WALLACE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 156
VALID 162155Z - 162240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..04/16/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 156
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-039-061-063-073-087-089-099-121-125-162240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA
KIT CARSON LINCOLN MORGAN
OTERO PROWERS WASHINGTON
YUMA
$$
KSC071-075-129-187-199-162240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREELEY HAMILTON MORTON
STANTON WALLACE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
