Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1135 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEL RIO
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 157...
DISCUSSION...EVENING SEVERE STORMS OVER SWRN TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
EWD AND DEVELOP INTO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
MDT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS STILL
A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER PRIMARY THREAT EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION GRADUALLY REDUCES THREAT OF
SURFACE BASED STORMS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 158 SEVERE TSTM TX 170435Z - 171100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
80NNE ABI/ABILENE TX/ - 20SE DRT/DEL RIO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /41SW SPS - 13SSE DLF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 33479811 29159969 29150168 33470019
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 158 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 158
VALID 170830Z - 170940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW SJT TO
35 SSE SJT TO 25 ESE SJT TO 20 NE SJT TO 40 NNW SJT.
..GOSS..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 158
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-049-059-083-093-095-133-137-171-207-253-265-267-271-307-
319-327-333-385-399-411-417-429-435-441-447-463-465-503-
170940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BROWN CALLAHAN
COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO
EASTLAND EDWARDS GILLESPIE
HASKELL JONES KERR
KIMBLE KINNEY MCCULLOCH
MASON MENARD MILLS
REAL RUNNELS SAN SABA
SHACKELFORD STEPHENS SUTTON
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON UVALDE
VAL VERDE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 158
VALID 170735Z - 170840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 494.
..GOSS..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 158
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-049-059-083-093-095-133-137-171-207-253-265-267-271-307-
319-327-333-385-399-411-413-417-429-435-441-447-451-463-465-503-
170840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BROWN CALLAHAN
COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO
EASTLAND EDWARDS GILLESPIE
HASKELL JONES KERR
KIMBLE KINNEY MCCULLOCH
MASON MENARD MILLS
REAL RUNNELS SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS
SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
TOM GREEN UVALDE VAL VERDE
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 158
VALID 170635Z - 170740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 158
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-049-059-083-093-095-133-137-171-207-253-265-267-271-307-
319-327-333-385-399-411-413-417-429-435-441-447-451-463-465-503-
170740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BROWN CALLAHAN
COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO
EASTLAND EDWARDS GILLESPIE
HASKELL JONES KERR
KIMBLE KINNEY MCCULLOCH
MASON MENARD MILLS
REAL RUNNELS SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS
SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
TOM GREEN UVALDE VAL VERDE
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.