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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 750 AM UNTIL 100
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF HONDO TEXAS TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF TEMPLE TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...BAND OF STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR. WITH CONTINUED NWWD ADVECTION OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME MODEST DIURNAL HEATING...ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION. WITH VEERING/SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ROTATION -- SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED -- BOTH WITHIN THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND AND WITH MORE ISOLATED/CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS BAND. EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...GOSS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 159 SEVERE TSTM TX 171250Z - 171800Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50SSW HDO/HONDO TX/ - 40NE TPL/TEMPLE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /72N LRD - 18ESE ACT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 28680056 31549804 31549583 28689841
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 159 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 159
VALID 171645Z - 171740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AND 15 NW
COT TO 25 SSW HDO TO 30 SE HDO TO 25 ESE HDO TO 30 S SAT TO 20
ESE SAT TO 10 E SAT TO 20 ESE AUS TO 35 ENE AUS TO 30 SSE TPL TO
30 SW TPL TO 50 WNW TPL.
..EDWARDS..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-021-027-055-099-123-145-149-161-163-177-187-255-285-287-
289-293-309-331-395-493-171740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BASTROP BELL
CALDWELL CORYELL DEWITT
FALLS FAYETTE FREESTONE
FRIO GONZALES GUADALUPE
KARNES LAVACA LEE
LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN
MILAM ROBERTSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 159
VALID 171545Z - 171640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E JCT TO
50 WNW AUS TO 35 WSW TPL TO 10 W ACT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 497.
..EDWARDS..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-027-029-031-053-055-091-099-123-127-145-149-161-
163-171-177-187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-289-293-309-323-325-
331-385-395-453-463-491-493-507-171640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BELL BEXAR BLANCO
BURNET CALDWELL COMAL
CORYELL DEWITT DIMMIT
FALLS FAYETTE FREESTONE
FRIO GILLESPIE GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES
KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LAVACA LEE LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MAVERICK
MEDINA MILAM REAL
ROBERTSON TRAVIS UVALDE
WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 159
VALID 171445Z - 171540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E JCT TO
40 WNW AUS TO 30 WSW TPL TO 25 WNW TPL TO 40 W ACT.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FORTHCOMING.
..EDWARDS..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-027-029-031-053-055-091-099-123-127-145-149-161-
163-171-177-187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-289-293-309-323-325-
331-385-395-453-463-491-493-507-171540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BELL BEXAR BLANCO
BURNET CALDWELL COMAL
CORYELL DEWITT DIMMIT
FALLS FAYETTE FREESTONE
FRIO GILLESPIE GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES
KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LAVACA LEE LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MAVERICK
MEDINA MILAM REAL
ROBERTSON TRAVIS UVALDE
WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 159
VALID 171340Z - 171440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE JCT
TO 55 E JCT TO 50 W TPL TO 55 SE BWD.
..EDWARDS..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-027-029-031-053-055-091-099-123-127-145-149-161-
163-171-177-187-209-255-259-265-271-281-285-287-289-293-299-309-
323-325-331-385-395-453-463-491-493-507-171440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BELL BEXAR BLANCO
BURNET CALDWELL COMAL
CORYELL DEWITT DIMMIT
FALLS FAYETTE FREESTONE
FRIO GILLESPIE GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES
KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LAMPASAS LAVACA LEE
LEON LIMESTONE LLANO
MCLENNAN MAVERICK MEDINA
MILAM REAL ROBERTSON
TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON
WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
