Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1025 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MEMPHIS
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 157...WW 158...
DISCUSSION...LARGE MCC NOW OVERSPREADING AR WILL CONTINUE ENEWD
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MUCAPE WILL SUSTAIN A FEW
STRONGER CELLS...WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELLS/LINES. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS STORMS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. HOWEVER...TORNADO THREAT WILL NEED CLOSE SCRUTINY GIVEN
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 159 SEVERE TSTM AR MO MS TN 040325Z - 041000Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NW DYR/DYERSBURG TN/ - 45SSE MEM/MEMPHIS TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /41NW DYR - 40SSE MEM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 36458852 34438826 34439108 36459141
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 159 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 159
VALID 040635Z - 040740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BVX TO
40 ESE POF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 549
..GUYER..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-040740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI
PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS
$$
MSC009-027-033-093-107-119-137-139-143-040740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON COAHOMA DESOTO
MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN
TATE TIPPAH TUNICA
$$
MOC069-155-040740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC017-023-033-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-109-113-131-
157-167-183-040740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON OBION
SHELBY TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 159
VALID 040520Z - 040640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-107-111-121-123-040640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS GREENE LAWRENCE
LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS
POINSETT RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
$$
MSC009-027-033-093-107-119-137-139-143-040640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON COAHOMA DESOTO
MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN
TATE TIPPAH TUNICA
$$
MOC069-155-040640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC017-023-033-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-109-113-131-
157-167-183-040640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON OBION
SHELBY TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 159
VALID 040520Z - 040640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-107-111-121-123-040640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS GREENE LAWRENCE
LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS
POINSETT RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
$$
MSC009-027-033-093-107-119-137-139-143-040640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON COAHOMA DESOTO
MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN
TATE TIPPAH TUNICA
$$
MOC069-155-040640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC017-023-033-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-109-113-131-
157-167-183-040640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON OBION
SHELBY TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 159
VALID 040440Z - 040540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-107-111-121-123-040540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS GREENE LAWRENCE
LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS
POINSETT RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
$$
MSC009-027-033-093-107-119-137-139-143-040540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON COAHOMA DESOTO
MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN
TATE TIPPAH TUNICA
$$
MOC069-155-040540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC017-023-033-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-109-113-131-
157-167-183-040540-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON OBION
SHELBY TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.