Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IDAHO
WESTERN MONTANA
EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON
EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BAKER OREGON TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GREAT
FALLS MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NERN OREGON AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL ID IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO WA/OREGON. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH
STRONGER HIGH-BASED STORMS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
RAPIDLY ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER PARTS OF WRN MT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO FORM EWD OVER THE CENTRAL MT MOUNTAINS
WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH FARTHER EAST IN MT MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 159 SEVERE TSTM ID MT OR WA 132100Z - 140400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40NNW BKE/BAKER OR/ - 55ENE GTF/GREAT FALLS MT/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /34NNW BKE - 50SSW HVR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 46221813 48651027 46901027 44501813
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 159 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 159
VALID 140340Z - 140400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S HLN TO
45 S CTB.
WW 159 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 140400Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 639.
..PETERS..05/14/13
ATTN...WFO...BOI...MSO...OTX...TFX...PDT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC013-015-045-073-099-140400-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASCADE CHOUTEAU JUDITH BASIN
PONDERA TETON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 159
VALID 140245Z - 140340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W BTM TO
45 N MSO.
..PETERS..05/14/13
ATTN...WFO...BOI...MSO...OTX...TFX...PDT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC013-015-023-029-045-049-073-077-099-140340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASCADE CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE
FLATHEAD JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK
PONDERA POWELL TETON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 159
VALID 140135Z - 140240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW MYL
TO 40 WSW P69 TO 50 SSW 3TH.
..PETERS..05/14/13
ATTN...WFO...BOI...MSO...OTX...TFX...PDT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC035-049-140240-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEARWATER IDAHO
$$
MTC013-015-023-029-039-045-047-049-061-063-073-077-081-099-
140240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASCADE CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE
FLATHEAD GRANITE JUDITH BASIN
LAKE LEWIS AND CLARK MINERAL
MISSOULA PONDERA POWELL
RAVALLI TETON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 159
VALID 140040Z - 140140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW MYL
TO 30 SE LWS TO 35 E PUW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 638.
..PETERS..05/14/13
ATTN...WFO...BOI...MSO...OTX...TFX...PDT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC035-049-061-140140-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEARWATER IDAHO LEWIS
$$
MTC013-015-023-029-039-045-047-049-061-063-073-077-081-099-
140140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASCADE CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE
FLATHEAD GRANITE JUDITH BASIN
LAKE LEWIS AND CLARK MINERAL
MISSOULA PONDERA POWELL
RAVALLI TETON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 159
VALID 132340Z - 140040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BKE TO
50 NNW MYL TO 35 E PUW.
..PETERS..05/13/13
ATTN...WFO...BOI...MSO...OTX...TFX...PDT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC003-035-049-061-140040-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLEARWATER IDAHO
LEWIS
$$
MTC013-015-023-029-039-045-047-049-061-063-073-077-081-099-
140040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASCADE CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE
FLATHEAD GRANITE JUDITH BASIN
LAKE LEWIS AND CLARK MINERAL
MISSOULA PONDERA POWELL
RAVALLI TETON
$$
ORC001-140040-
OR
. OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 159
VALID 132235Z - 132340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/13/13
ATTN...WFO...BOI...MSO...OTX...TFX...PDT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 159
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC003-035-049-061-069-132340-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLEARWATER IDAHO
LEWIS NEZ PERCE
$$
MTC013-015-023-029-039-045-047-049-061-063-073-077-081-099-
132340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASCADE CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE
FLATHEAD GRANITE JUDITH BASIN
LAKE LEWIS AND CLARK MINERAL
MISSOULA PONDERA POWELL
RAVALLI TETON
$$
ORC001-061-063-132340-
OR
. OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER UNION WALLOWA
$$
WAC003-132340-
WA
. WASHINGTON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASOTIN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.