Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 330 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ABILENE TEXAS TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DURANT
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...COMPLEX STORM EVOLUTION ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING
AS LIFT AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER CENTRAL
OK ACT ON VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF TX DRYLINE AND ALONG/SOUTH
OF RED RIVER WARM FRONT. CURRENT CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WARM FRONT IN SCNTRL OK WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH STORM INTERACTIONS/MERGERS
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO. WITH TIME FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTH AND WEST AS SHEAR AND LIFT STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE MID/UPPER
LOW. PROXIMITY TO STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
WATCH SHOULD SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. EVENTUALLY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND SPREAD ESEWD
ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE EVENING. TORNADO POTENTIAL
MAY INCREASE IF CONVECTION REMAINS DISCRETE AND INTERACTS WITH
RESIDUAL STORM-SCALE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES DURING THE EVENING. IF
THIS POTENTIAL BECOMES EVIDENT...PARTS OF THE REGION MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 160 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 152030Z - 160500Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
90WNW ABI/ABILENE TX/ - 15ESE DUA/DURANT OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /62SE LBB - 54ESE ADM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 34060111 35029616 32709616 31750111
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 160 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 160
VALID 160235Z - 160340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BGS TO
40 WNW ABI TO 65 WSW SPS TO 15 N SPS TO 30 SW MLC TO 10 SW MLC.
..ROGERS..05/16/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-029-160340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA COAL
$$
TXC009-023-059-081-095-207-253-327-353-399-417-441-447-451-
160340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CALLAHAN
COKE CONCHO HASKELL
JONES MENARD NOLAN
RUNNELS SHACKELFORD TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 160
VALID 160145Z - 160240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW LTS
TO 15 N SPS TO 20 NE ADM TO 10 NW MLC.
..ROGERS..05/16/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-029-160240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA COAL
$$
TXC009-023-059-075-081-095-101-125-151-155-169-197-207-253-263-
269-275-327-345-353-399-417-433-441-447-451-485-487-160240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CALLAHAN
CHILDRESS COKE CONCHO
COTTLE DICKENS FISHER
FOARD GARZA HARDEMAN
HASKELL JONES KENT
KING KNOX MENARD
MOTLEY NOLAN RUNNELS
SHACKELFORD STONEWALL TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN WICHITA
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 160
VALID 160100Z - 160240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 648
..ROGERS..05/16/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-029-033-049-123-137-141-160240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA COAL COTTON
GARVIN PONTOTOC STEPHENS
TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-049-059-075-081-083-101-125-151-155-169-197-207-253-
263-269-275-345-353-399-417-433-441-447-485-487-160240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN
CALLAHAN CHILDRESS COKE
COLEMAN COTTLE DICKENS
FISHER FOARD GARZA
HARDEMAN HASKELL JONES
KENT KING KNOX
MOTLEY NOLAN RUNNELS
SHACKELFORD STONEWALL TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 160
VALID 152335Z - 160040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 647
..ROGERS..05/15/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-029-033-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-141-
160040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COAL COTTON GARVIN
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE
MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC
STEPHENS TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-049-059-075-077-081-083-085-093-097-101-113-121-125-
133-143-147-151-155-169-181-197-207-221-231-237-253-263-269-275-
337-345-353-363-367-397-399-417-429-433-439-441-447-485-487-497-
503-160040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN
CALLAHAN CHILDRESS CLAY
COKE COLEMAN COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE COTTLE
DALLAS DENTON DICKENS
EASTLAND ERATH FANNIN
FISHER FOARD GARZA
GRAYSON HARDEMAN HASKELL
HOOD HUNT JACK
JONES KENT KING
KNOX MONTAGUE MOTLEY
NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER
ROCKWALL RUNNELS SHACKELFORD
STEPHENS STONEWALL TARRANT
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA
WILBARGER WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 160
VALID 152230Z - 152340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..05/15/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-029-033-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-141-
152340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COAL COTTON GARVIN
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE
MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC
STEPHENS TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-049-059-075-077-081-083-085-093-097-101-113-121-125-
133-143-147-151-155-169-181-197-207-221-231-237-253-263-269-275-
337-345-353-363-367-397-399-417-429-433-439-441-447-485-487-497-
503-152340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN
CALLAHAN CHILDRESS CLAY
COKE COLEMAN COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE COTTLE
DALLAS DENTON DICKENS
EASTLAND ERATH FANNIN
FISHER FOARD GARZA
GRAYSON HARDEMAN HASKELL
HOOD HUNT JACK
JONES KENT KING
KNOX MONTAGUE MOTLEY
NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER
ROCKWALL RUNNELS SHACKELFORD
STEPHENS STONEWALL TARRANT
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA
WILBARGER WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.