Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST OF
BEEVILLE TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF VICTORIA TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 159...WW 160...
DISCUSSION...THE SRN PORTION OF AN MCS OVER SCNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE
EWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24020.
...BROYLES/HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 161 SEVERE TSTM TX 171755Z - 180000Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
75W NIR/BEEVILLE TX/ - 25NE VCT/VICTORIA TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /60NNE LRD - 27NW PSX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24020.
LAT...LON 29099890 29829662 28379662 27639890
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 161 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 161
VALID 172035Z - 172140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE COT TO
20 SE SAT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 502
..GARNER..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC025-057-123-149-175-177-255-283-285-297-311-391-469-493-
172140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEE CALHOUN DEWITT
FAYETTE GOLIAD GONZALES
KARNES LA SALLE LAVACA
LIVE OAK MCMULLEN REFUGIO
VICTORIA WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 161
VALID 171930Z - 172040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-025-057-123-149-163-175-177-255-283-285-297-311-391-469-
493-172040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BEE CALHOUN
DEWITT FAYETTE FRIO
GOLIAD GONZALES KARNES
LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN REFUGIO VICTORIA
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 161
VALID 171835Z - 171940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-025-057-123-149-163-175-177-255-283-285-297-311-391-469-
493-171940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BEE CALHOUN
DEWITT FAYETTE FRIO
GOLIAD GONZALES KARNES
LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN REFUGIO VICTORIA
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
