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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ALABAMA
EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 245 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF NASHVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 159. WATCH NUMBER 159 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 245 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 157...WW 158...WW
160...
DISCUSSION...SQLN WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ENE IN VERY STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
/70 KT SW 500 MB FLOW ATOP 50+ KT SSW LLJ/. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND EXISTING QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURE SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY SVR THREAT
SHOULD BE DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO COULD OCCUR INVOF BOW HEADS AND/OR INVOF N/S WARM FRONT IN
MIDDLE TN/NW AL...GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 25035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 161 SEVERE TSTM AL AR MS TN 040745Z - 041600Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50SW UOX/OXFORD MS/ - 25NNE BNA/NASHVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /25NNE SQS - 21NNE BNA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
REPLACES WW 159..AR MO MS TN
LAT...LON 33869170 36458812 36458488 33868858
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 161 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 161
VALID 041345Z - 041440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE UOX
TO 20 N MSL TO 55 SSE BNA.
..DIAL..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-059-077-079-083-041440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
$$
MSC017-057-081-095-041440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LEE
MONROE
$$
TNC103-127-041440-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LINCOLN MOORE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 161
VALID 041245Z - 041340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE PBF
TO 20 N TUP TO 40 NNE CSV.
..GUYER..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-059-077-079-083-041340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
$$
MSC013-017-027-057-071-081-095-107-115-117-119-135-141-145-161-
041340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CHICKASAW COAHOMA
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
MONROE PANOLA PONTOTOC
PRENTISS QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE
TISHOMINGO UNION YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC103-127-041340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LINCOLN MOORE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 161
VALID 041245Z - 041340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE PBF
TO 20 N TUP TO 40 NNE CSV.
..GUYER..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-059-077-079-083-041340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
$$
MSC013-017-027-057-071-081-095-107-115-117-119-135-141-145-161-
041340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CHICKASAW COAHOMA
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
MONROE PANOLA PONTOTOC
PRENTISS QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE
TISHOMINGO UNION YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC103-127-041340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LINCOLN MOORE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 161
VALID 041130Z - 041240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE PBF
TO 45 SSE MKL TO 50 SE BWG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 552
..GUYER..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-059-077-079-083-041240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-027-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-135-
137-139-141-145-161-041240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA ITAWAMBA
LAFAYETTE LEE MARSHALL
MONROE PANOLA PONTOTOC
PRENTISS QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE
TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
UNION YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC003-015-031-041-055-071-099-101-103-117-119-127-149-159-177-
181-185-187-189-041240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON COFFEE
DEKALB GILES HARDIN
LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN
MARSHALL MAURY MOORE
RUTHERFORD SMITH WARREN
WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 161
VALID 041035Z - 041140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE PBF
TO 35 S MKL TO 30 NE BNA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 552
..GUYER..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-059-077-079-083-041140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-027-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-135-
137-139-141-145-161-041140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA ITAWAMBA
LAFAYETTE LEE MARSHALL
MONROE PANOLA PONTOTOC
PRENTISS QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE
TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
UNION YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC003-015-031-037-041-055-071-081-099-101-103-109-117-119-127-
135-149-159-169-177-181-185-187-189-041140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON COFFEE
DAVIDSON DEKALB GILES
HARDIN HICKMAN LAWRENCE
LEWIS LINCOLN MCNAIRY
MARSHALL MAURY MOORE
PERRY RUTHERFORD SMITH
TROUSDALE WARREN WAYNE
WHITE WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 161
VALID 040945Z - 041040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MEM
TO 30 NNW BNA.
..GUYER..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-059-077-079-083-041040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
$$
ARC077-107-041040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEE PHILLIPS
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-041040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
MARSHALL MONROE PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC003-015-021-023-031-037-039-041-043-047-055-069-071-077-081-
085-099-101-103-109-113-117-119-127-135-149-159-169-177-181-185-
187-189-041040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON CHEATHAM
CHESTER COFFEE DAVIDSON
DECATUR DEKALB DICKSON
FAYETTE GILES HARDEMAN
HARDIN HENDERSON HICKMAN
HUMPHREYS LAWRENCE LEWIS
LINCOLN MCNAIRY MADISON
MARSHALL MAURY MOORE
PERRY RUTHERFORD SMITH
TROUSDALE WARREN WAYNE
WHITE WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.