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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 600 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH ALONG SSW-NNE
CONFLUENCE AXIS ATTM EXTENDING FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS TX TO W OF
BROWNWOOD TX. ACTIVITY WILL BE FOSTERED BOTH BY CONTINUED SFC
HEATING AND BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW MOVING ESE
ACROSS W TX. AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR/VEERING WIND
PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION..MOIST...15-20 KT S TO SSELY
SFC FLOW AHEAD OF CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN RISK FOR LOW-LVL
MESOS WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A
BROKEN SQLN WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK FOR SVR
HAIL/WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES THROUGH LATE TNGT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 161 TORNADO OK TX 152300Z - 160600Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10NE ADM/ARDMORE OK/ - 60SSE BWD/BROWNWOOD TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /17NE ADM - 65NW CWK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 34389576 30989745 30989966 34389804
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 161 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 161
VALID 160535Z - 160600Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE JCT
TO 25 WNW ACT TO 20 SE DAL.
WW 161 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 160600Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 651.
..GRAMS..05/16/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC027-097-099-121-217-231-257-281-309-319-349-397-411-160600-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL COOKE CORYELL
DENTON HILL HUNT
KAUFMAN LAMPASAS MCLENNAN
MASON NAVARRO ROCKWALL
SAN SABA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 161
VALID 160455Z - 160540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE JCT
TO 25 SSE SEP TO 15 NE FTW TO 40 WSW GYI TO 20 S ADM TO 25 E DUA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 651
..GUYER..05/16/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC027-035-085-097-099-113-121-139-147-181-193-217-231-251-257-
281-307-309-319-333-349-397-411-439-160540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BOSQUE COLLIN
COOKE CORYELL DALLAS
DENTON ELLIS FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL
HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN
MASON MILLS NAVARRO
ROCKWALL SAN SABA TARRANT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 161
VALID 160235Z - 160340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE SPS TO
25 SSW ADM TO 30 S MLC.
..ROGERS..05/16/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC013-095-160340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN MARSHALL
$$
TXC027-035-049-077-083-085-093-097-099-113-121-133-139-143-147-
181-193-217-221-231-237-251-257-281-307-309-333-337-349-363-367-
397-411-425-429-439-497-503-160340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BOSQUE BROWN
CLAY COLEMAN COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND
ELLIS ERATH FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL
HOOD HUNT JACK
JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMPASAS
MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MILLS
MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO
PARKER ROCKWALL SAN SABA
SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT
WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 161
VALID 160135Z - 160240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..05/16/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC013-019-067-069-085-095-099-160240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN CARTER JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL
MURRAY
$$
TXC027-035-049-077-083-085-093-097-099-113-121-133-139-143-147-
181-193-217-221-231-237-251-281-307-309-333-337-363-367-397-411-
425-429-439-497-503-160240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BOSQUE BROWN
CLAY COLEMAN COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND
ELLIS ERATH FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL
HOOD HUNT JACK
JOHNSON LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH
MCLENNAN MILLS MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL
SAN SABA SOMERVELL STEPHENS
TARRANT WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 161
VALID 160100Z - 160240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 649
..ROGERS..05/16/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 161
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC013-019-067-069-085-095-099-160240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN CARTER JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL
MURRAY
$$
TXC027-035-049-077-083-085-093-097-099-113-121-133-139-143-147-
181-193-217-221-231-237-251-281-307-309-333-337-363-367-397-411-
425-429-439-497-503-160240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BOSQUE BROWN
CLAY COLEMAN COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND
ELLIS ERATH FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL
HOOD HUNT JACK
JOHNSON LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH
MCLENNAN MILLS MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL
SAN SABA SOMERVELL STEPHENS
TARRANT WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.