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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 355 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 157. WATCH NUMBER 157 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 355 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 158...WW 160...WW
161...
DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY E OR ENE ALONG
AND N OF SE-MOVING COLD FRONT. GIVEN INCREASING UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
UPR LEVEL IMPULSE NOW OVER W TX...EXPECT THAT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY
DMGG WIND. SE AR/W CNTRL MS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
LATER THIS MORNING AS STORMS THAT MOVE/POSSIBLY DEVELOP IN THAT
REGION MAY BECOME NEARLY SURFACE-BASED...NECESSITATING AN UPGRADE TO
TORNADO WW.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 162 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TX 040855Z - 041600Z
AXIS..115 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30ESE GGG/LONGVIEW TX/ - 20NE PBF/PINE BLUFF AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 100NM E/W /28ESE GGG - 31SE LIT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
REPLACES WW 157..AR OK TX
LAT...LON 32209620 34369369 34368966 32209227
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 162 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 162
VALID 041555Z - 041600Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE SHV
TO 20 WNW MLU TO 40 SSW GLH.
WW 162 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 041600Z.
..DIAL..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-031-035-049-061-067-073-081-123-041600-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
JACKSON LINCOLN MOREHOUSE
OUACHITA RED RIVER WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC151-041600-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 162
VALID 041345Z - 041440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE GGG
TO 35 SW PBF TO 10 W UOX.
..DIAL..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-011-013-017-041-043-139-041440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT DESHA DREW
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-035-049-061-067-073-081-111-119-123-
041440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
JACKSON LINCOLN MOREHOUSE
OUACHITA RED RIVER UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-043-083-133-151-041440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR GRENADA LEFLORE
SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
$$
TXC365-041440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PANOLA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 162
VALID 041245Z - 041340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N TYR TO
55 ENE PBF.
..GUYER..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-041-043-073-079-091-099-103-139-
041340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DESHA DREW
LAFAYETTE LINCOLN MILLER
NEVADA OUACHITA UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-035-049-061-067-073-081-111-119-123-
041340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
JACKSON LINCOLN MOREHOUSE
OUACHITA RED RIVER UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-043-083-133-151-041340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR GRENADA LEFLORE
SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
$$
TXC063-067-183-203-315-343-365-401-423-459-499-041340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMP CASS GREGG
HARRISON MARION MORRIS
PANOLA RUSK SMITH
UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 162
VALID 041130Z - 041240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S PRX TO
20 NW PBF.
..GUYER..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-057-069-073-079-091-
099-103-139-041240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA
DREW HEMPSTEAD JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LINCOLN MILLER
NEVADA OUACHITA UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-035-049-061-067-073-081-111-119-123-
041240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
JACKSON LINCOLN MOREHOUSE
OUACHITA RED RIVER UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-043-083-133-151-041240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR GRENADA LEFLORE
SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-365-401-423-449-459-499-
041240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS PANOLA
RUSK SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 162
VALID 041035Z - 041140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..04/04/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-059-061-
069-073-079-081-091-099-103-109-133-139-041140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN
LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA
OUACHITA PIKE SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-035-049-061-067-073-081-111-119-123-
041140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
JACKSON LINCOLN MOREHOUSE
OUACHITA RED RIVER UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-043-083-133-151-041140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR GRENADA LEFLORE
SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-365-387-401-423-449-459-499-
041140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS PANOLA
RED RIVER RUSK SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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