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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1130
PM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF CORSICANA TEXAS TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
AUSTIN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...
DISCUSSION...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS IN THE DFW AREA...AND SW-NE SQLN WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS FARTHER S /EXTENDING FROM ABOUT 35 NNE WACO TO ABOUT 50
NE JUNCTION TX/...EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY ESE THROUGH EARLY THU
GIVEN AREA INSTABILITY PATTERN/WIND PROFILES. SOME TENDENCY ALSO MAY
EXIST FOR UPSTREAM/WWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SW END OF THE SQLN INTO
THE SRN PART OF THE HILL COUNTRY. WHILE CIN WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...UPR IMPULSE MOVING SEWD FROM W
CNTRL TX WILL PROVIDE SOME DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...AND 40 KT SSWLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE
INFLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS ENHANCED BY PRECIP-LOADING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 162 SEVERE TSTM TX 160430Z - 161100Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNE CRS/CORSICANA TX/ - 25SSE AUS/AUSTIN TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /49ESE TTT - 25S CWK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
LAT...LON 32499470 29959612 29959895 32499762
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 162 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 162
VALID 160730Z - 160840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W TPL TO
50 NNE CLL TO 10 WNW TYR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 652.
..GRAMS..05/16/13
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-021-031-041-051-053-055-149-171-185-209-213-225-287-289-
299-313-331-395-453-455-471-477-491-160840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BASTROP BLANCO
BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET
CALDWELL FAYETTE GILLESPIE
GRIMES HAYS HENDERSON
HOUSTON LEE LEON
LLANO MADISON MILAM
ROBERTSON TRAVIS TRINITY
WALKER WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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