Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
NORTH PLATTE NEBRASKA TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF HILL CITY
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE FORMED IN AN ARC IN ADVANCE OF A
SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY MAX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NERN CO. STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...AND ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE
WAKE OF AN MCV OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB ARE PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 163 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 161855Z - 170100Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40N LBF/NORTH PLATTE NE/ - 40WSW HLC/HILL CITY KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /35N LBF - 15WSW HLC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 41709941 39159930 39150173 41700194
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 163 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 163
VALID 170040Z - 170100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW IML
TO 10 N MCK TO 25 ESE LBF TO 15 ESE MHN.
WW 163 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 170100Z.
..MARSH..05/17/13
ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 163
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-125-170100-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-065-137-147-153-163-179-181-193-170100-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS
$$
NEC009-041-047-057-065-073-083-087-113-115-137-145-171-170100-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CUSTER DAWSON
DUNDY FURNAS GOSPER
HARLAN HITCHCOCK LOGAN
LOUP PHELPS RED WILLOW
THOMAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 163
VALID 162340Z - 170040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW IML TO
10 N MCK TO 25 ESE LBF TO 25 SE MHN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 664
..MARSH..05/16/13
ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 163
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-125-170040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-065-137-147-153-163-179-181-193-170040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS
$$
NEC009-041-047-057-065-073-083-087-113-115-137-145-171-170040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CUSTER DAWSON
DUNDY FURNAS GOSPER
HARLAN HITCHCOCK LOGAN
LOUP PHELPS RED WILLOW
THOMAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 163
VALID 162245Z - 162340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW IML TO
10 N MCK TO 25 ESE LBF TO 30 SE MHN.
..MARSH..05/16/13
ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 163
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-125-162340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-065-137-147-153-163-179-181-193-162340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS
$$
NEC009-041-047-057-065-073-083-087-113-115-137-145-171-162340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CUSTER DAWSON
DUNDY FURNAS GOSPER
HARLAN HITCHCOCK LOGAN
LOUP PHELPS RED WILLOW
THOMAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 163
VALID 162150Z - 162240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..05/16/13
ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 163
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-125-162240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-065-137-147-153-163-179-181-193-162240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS
$$
NEC005-029-041-047-057-063-065-073-083-085-087-101-111-113-117-
135-137-145-162240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CUSTER
DAWSON DUNDY FRONTIER
FURNAS GOSPER HARLAN
HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH
LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON
PERKINS PHELPS RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 163
VALID 162040Z - 162140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 661
..DIAL..05/16/13
ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 163
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC023-039-065-137-147-153-163-179-181-193-162140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS
$$
NEC005-029-041-047-057-063-065-073-083-085-087-101-111-113-117-
135-137-145-162140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CUSTER
DAWSON DUNDY FRONTIER
FURNAS GOSPER HARLAN
HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH
LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON
PERKINS PHELPS RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.