Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 420 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
PALACIOS TEXAS TO 65 MILES WEST OF COTULLA TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WITH EARLIER STORMS LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX
COAST...AND LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT INCREASES FROM THE RIO GRANDE ENEWD
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX ROTATING ENEWD OVER THE
BIG BEND. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 164 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 180920Z - 181600Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25N PSX/PALACIOS TX/ - 65W COT/COTULLA TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /20N PSX - 60SSE DLF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 28019625 27360029 29530029 30189625
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 164 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 164
VALID 181545Z - 181600Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW LRD
TO 20 SSW COT TO 35 ESE AUS.
WW 164 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 181600Z. ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FORTHCOMING.
..EDWARDS..04/18/09
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC007-013-025-057-123-131-149-175-177-249-255-273-283-285-297-
311-355-391-409-469-479-493-181600-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARANSAS ATASCOSA BEE
CALHOUN DEWITT DUVAL
FAYETTE GOLIAD GONZALES
JIM WELLS KARNES KLEBERG
LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN NUECES REFUGIO
SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WEBB
WILSON
$$
GMZ230-235-250-255-181600-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 164
VALID 181455Z - 181540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW LRD
TO 20 SSW COT TO 30 ENE COT TO 45 ESE AUS.
..EDWARDS..04/18/09
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC007-013-015-025-041-051-057-089-123-131-149-175-177-185-239-
249-255-273-283-285-297-311-313-321-355-391-409-469-473-477-479-
481-493-181540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARANSAS ATASCOSA AUSTIN
BEE BRAZOS BURLESON
CALHOUN COLORADO DEWITT
DUVAL FAYETTE GOLIAD
GONZALES GRIMES JACKSON
JIM WELLS KARNES KLEBERG
LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN MADISON MATAGORDA
NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO
VICTORIA WALLER WASHINGTON
WEBB WHARTON WILSON
$$
GMZ230-235-250-255-330-350-181540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 164
VALID 181355Z - 181440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW COT
TO 20 SSW COT TO 20 NW COT TO 30 ENE COT TO 45 ESE AUS.
..EDWARDS..04/18/09
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC007-013-015-025-041-051-057-089-123-131-149-175-177-185-239-
249-255-273-283-285-297-311-313-321-355-391-409-469-473-477-479-
481-493-181440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARANSAS ATASCOSA AUSTIN
BEE BRAZOS BURLESON
CALHOUN COLORADO DEWITT
DUVAL FAYETTE GOLIAD
GONZALES GRIMES JACKSON
JIM WELLS KARNES KLEBERG
LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN MADISON MATAGORDA
NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO
VICTORIA WALLER WASHINGTON
WEBB WHARTON WILSON
$$
GMZ230-235-250-255-330-350-181440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 164
VALID 181245Z - 181340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..04/18/09
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC007-013-015-019-021-025-029-055-057-089-091-123-127-131-149-
163-175-177-187-209-239-249-255-259-271-273-283-285-287-297-311-
321-323-325-355-391-409-463-469-477-479-481-493-507-181340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARANSAS ATASCOSA AUSTIN
BANDERA BASTROP BEE
BEXAR CALDWELL CALHOUN
COLORADO COMAL DEWITT
DIMMIT DUVAL FAYETTE
FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAYS JACKSON
JIM WELLS KARNES KENDALL
KINNEY KLEBERG LA SALLE
LAVACA LEE LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN MATAGORDA MAVERICK
MEDINA NUECES REFUGIO
SAN PATRICIO UVALDE VICTORIA
WASHINGTON WEBB WHARTON
WILSON ZAVALA
$$
GMZ230-235-250-255-330-350-181340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 164
VALID 181135Z - 181240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 510.
..GOSS..04/18/09
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC007-013-015-019-021-025-029-055-057-089-091-123-127-131-149-
163-175-177-187-209-239-249-255-259-271-273-283-285-287-297-311-
321-323-325-355-391-409-463-469-477-479-481-493-507-181240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARANSAS ATASCOSA AUSTIN
BANDERA BASTROP BEE
BEXAR CALDWELL CALHOUN
COLORADO COMAL DEWITT
DIMMIT DUVAL FAYETTE
FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAYS JACKSON
JIM WELLS KARNES KENDALL
KINNEY KLEBERG LA SALLE
LAVACA LEE LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN MATAGORDA MAVERICK
MEDINA NUECES REFUGIO
SAN PATRICIO UVALDE VICTORIA
WASHINGTON WEBB WHARTON
WILSON ZAVALA
$$
GMZ230-235-250-255-330-350-181240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 164
VALID 181045Z - 181140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..04/18/09
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC007-013-015-019-021-025-029-055-057-089-091-123-127-131-149-
163-175-177-187-209-239-249-255-259-271-273-283-285-287-297-311-
321-323-325-355-391-409-463-469-477-479-481-493-507-181140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARANSAS ATASCOSA AUSTIN
BANDERA BASTROP BEE
BEXAR CALDWELL CALHOUN
COLORADO COMAL DEWITT
DIMMIT DUVAL FAYETTE
FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAYS JACKSON
JIM WELLS KARNES KENDALL
KINNEY KLEBERG LA SALLE
LAVACA LEE LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN MATAGORDA MAVERICK
MEDINA NUECES REFUGIO
SAN PATRICIO UVALDE VICTORIA
WASHINGTON WEBB WHARTON
WILSON ZAVALA
$$
GMZ230-235-250-255-330-350-181140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.