Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 800 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MONROE LOUISIANA TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF MONROE LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 164. WATCH NUMBER 164 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
800 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 163...
DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS FORMED OVER S CNTRL AR
THIS EVE...INVOF A LOBE OF VORTICITY/ASCENT ROTATING AROUND SRN SIDE
OF NW AR UPR LOW. AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH 40-50 KT SSWLY 1-2 KM FLOW SAMPLED AT FORT
POLK AR. COUPLED WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE...MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...SETUP MAY YIELD OCCASIONAL STORMS WITH A
RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND A TORNADO. WHILE THE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE MAINLY E TO ESELY...SET MAY YIELD PERIODIC EPISODES OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT ON THE UPSTREAM /W/ SIDE OF EXISTING ACTIVITY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 165 TORNADO AR LA MS 170100Z - 170600Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
70NNE MLU/MONROE LA/ - 15S MLU/MONROE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /60ENE ELD - 13S MLU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
REPLACES WW 164..LA
LAT...LON 33459044 32299091 32299313 33459269
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 165 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 165
VALID 170440Z - 170540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW JAN
TO 10 N MLU TO 15 SW LLQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 666
..GUYER..05/17/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-170540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC035-067-123-170540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MOREHOUSE WEST CARROLL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 165
VALID 170340Z - 170440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW JAN
TO 10 N MLU TO 20 SW LLQ.
..MARSH..05/17/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-170440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC035-067-123-170440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MOREHOUSE WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC053-055-125-151-170440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA SHARKEY
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 165
VALID 170230Z - 170340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..05/17/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-139-170340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT UNION
$$
LAC027-035-041-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-123-170340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
OUACHITA RICHLAND TENSAS
UNION WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC053-055-125-149-151-170340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA SHARKEY
WARREN WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
