Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST WYOMING
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CHADRON NEBRASKA TO 75 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF RAPID CITY SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 166...
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE AND NEAR THE BLACK HILLS OF SD...WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING THICKENING CU OVER PARTS OF NERN WY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT. THIS WILL FAVOR POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE THIS
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE PLAINS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 167 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 172105Z - 180400Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
75SE CDR/CHADRON NE/ - 75NNW RAP/RAPID CITY SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /64E BFF - 70NNW RAP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 42040362 45040527 45040200 42040051
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 167 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 167
VALID 180330Z - 180400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 167 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180400Z...ALTHOUGH A LOCAL
EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE REQUIRED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 674.
..MARSH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 167
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC013-031-045-069-075-161-165-180400-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOX BUTTE CHERRY DAWES
GARDEN GRANT SHERIDAN
SIOUX
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-071-081-093-095-103-113-121-123-180400-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON
LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE
PENNINGTON SHANNON TODD
TRIPP
$$
WYC005-011-027-045-180400-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK NIOBRARA
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 167
VALID 180235Z - 180340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 167
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC013-031-045-069-075-161-165-180340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOX BUTTE CHERRY DAWES
GARDEN GRANT SHERIDAN
SIOUX
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-071-081-093-095-103-113-121-123-180340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON
LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE
PENNINGTON SHANNON TODD
TRIPP
$$
WYC005-011-027-045-180340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK NIOBRARA
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 167
VALID 180140Z - 180240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 167
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC013-031-045-069-075-161-165-180240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOX BUTTE CHERRY DAWES
GARDEN GRANT SHERIDAN
SIOUX
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-071-081-093-095-103-113-121-123-180240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON
LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE
PENNINGTON SHANNON TODD
TRIPP
$$
WYC005-011-027-045-180240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK NIOBRARA
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 167
VALID 180045Z - 180140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 673
..MARSH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 167
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC013-031-045-161-165-180140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOX BUTTE CHERRY DAWES
SHERIDAN SIOUX
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-071-081-093-095-103-113-121-123-180140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON
LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE
PENNINGTON SHANNON TODD
TRIPP
$$
WYC005-011-027-045-180140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK NIOBRARA
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 167
VALID 172335Z - 180040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..05/17/13
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 167
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC013-031-045-161-165-180040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOX BUTTE CHERRY DAWES
SHERIDAN SIOUX
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-071-081-093-095-103-113-121-123-180040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON
LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE
PENNINGTON SHANNON TODD
TRIPP
$$
WYC005-011-027-045-180040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK NIOBRARA
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 167
VALID 172230Z - 172340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..05/17/13
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 167
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC013-031-045-161-165-172340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOX BUTTE CHERRY DAWES
SHERIDAN SIOUX
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-071-081-093-095-103-113-121-123-172340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON
LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE
PENNINGTON SHANNON TODD
TRIPP
$$
WYC005-011-027-045-172340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK NIOBRARA
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.