Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY EVENING FROM 620 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MONTGOMERY ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 166...WW 167...
DISCUSSION...A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL AL THIS
EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF
THIS LIKELY EXPANDING/SUSTAINED LINEAR CLUSTER. WHILE A RELATIVELY
MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MODEST SHEAR/SRH MAY SUPPORT SOME
TORNADO THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING...THE PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...GUYER
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 168 SEVERE TSTM AL 172320Z - 180400Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45WSW TCL/TUSCALOOSA AL/ - 20NE MGM/MONTGOMERY AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /32SSE IGB - 18NNE MGM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 33548833 33068616 31928616 32388833
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 168 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 168
VALID 180355Z - 180400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW SEM TO
25 N SEM TO 25 WSW AUO.
WW 168 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180400Z.
..CORFIDI..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-047-085-180400-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA DALLAS LOWNDES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 168
VALID 180335Z - 180400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW SEM
TO 25 SSE TCL TO 30 NNE MGM.
WW 168 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180400Z.
..MARSH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-047-085-105-180400-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA DALLAS LOWNDES
PERRY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 168
VALID 180235Z - 180340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-021-037-047-051-063-065-085-091-101-105-107-117-119-
125-180340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB CHILTON
COOSA DALLAS ELMORE
GREENE HALE LOWNDES
MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY
PICKENS SHELBY SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 168
VALID 180140Z - 180240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-021-037-047-051-063-065-085-091-101-105-107-117-119-
125-180240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB CHILTON
COOSA DALLAS ELMORE
GREENE HALE LOWNDES
MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY
PICKENS SHELBY SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 168
VALID 180045Z - 180140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-021-037-047-051-063-065-085-091-101-105-107-117-119-
125-180140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB CHILTON
COOSA DALLAS ELMORE
GREENE HALE LOWNDES
MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY
PICKENS SHELBY SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.