Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 165...WW 166...WW 167...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL OK...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE
LINEAR IN NATURE LATER THIS EVENING AS PRIMARY FORCING OVERSPREADS
REGION.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 168 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 182010Z - 190300Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45ENE AVK/ALVA OK/ - 60SE SPS/WICHITA FALLS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /40N END - 47NW DFW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 37009673 33349663 33349888 37009908
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 168 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 168
VALID 190235Z - 190300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE SPS
TO 20 SW CQB TO 10 SE CQB.
WW 168 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 190300Z. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT
BE SOME TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BACKBUILD SSWWD IN RESPONSE TO
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING VORT MAX. THREAT FOR
HAIL MAY PERSIST AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND 03Z. WW MAY BE LOCALLY
EXTENDED A COUPLE HOURS FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN OK FOR THIS
POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
..DIAL..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-027-029-049-063-069-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-
190300-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CLEVELAND COAL GARVIN
HUGHES JOHNSTON LOVE
MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE
$$
TXC085-097-113-121-139-143-181-221-237-251-337-363-367-397-425-
439-497-190300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DENTON ELLIS ERATH
GRAYSON HOOD JACK
JOHNSON MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER ROCKWALL SOMERVELL
TARRANT WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 168
VALID 190140Z - 190240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW MWL
TO 20 E OKC TO 35 ESE END TO 30 NW PNC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 522
..DIAL..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-027-029-049-063-069-071-081-085-087-095-099-103-
119-123-125-133-190240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CLEVELAND COAL GARVIN
HUGHES JOHNSTON KAY
LINCOLN LOVE MCCLAIN
MARSHALL MURRAY NOBLE
PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE
$$
TXC085-097-113-121-139-143-181-221-237-251-337-363-367-397-425-
439-497-190240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DENTON ELLIS ERATH
GRAYSON HOOD JACK
JOHNSON MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER ROCKWALL SOMERVELL
TARRANT WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 168
VALID 190035Z - 190140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MWL
TO 10 S END TO 40 ESE P28.
..DIAL..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-027-029-047-049-051-053-063-067-069-071-081-083-
085-087-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137-190140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CLEVELAND COAL GARFIELD
GARVIN GRADY GRANT
HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
KAY LINCOLN LOGAN
LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL
MURRAY NOBLE OKLAHOMA
PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE STEPHENS
$$
TXC077-085-097-113-121-139-143-181-221-237-251-337-363-367-397-
425-439-497-190140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY COLLIN COOKE
DALLAS DENTON ELLIS
ERATH GRAYSON HOOD
JACK JOHNSON MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL
SOMERVELL TARRANT WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 168
VALID 182335Z - 190040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MWL
TO 30 WNW CHK TO 30 WSW END TO 30 SE P28.
..DIAL..04/18/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-047-049-051-053-063-067-
069-071-081-083-085-087-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137-
190040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CADDO
CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON KAY LINCOLN
LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN
MARSHALL MURRAY NOBLE
OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS
$$
TXC077-085-097-113-121-139-143-181-221-237-251-337-363-367-397-
425-439-497-190040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY COLLIN COOKE
DALLAS DENTON ELLIS
ERATH GRAYSON HOOD
JACK JOHNSON MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL
SOMERVELL TARRANT WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 168
VALID 182240Z - 182340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..04/18/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-047-049-051-053-063-067-
069-071-075-081-083-085-087-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137-
141-149-182340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CADDO
CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON KAY KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE
MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY
NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
$$
TXC009-077-097-181-337-485-182340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER CLAY COOKE
GRAYSON MONTAGUE WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 168
VALID 182145Z - 182240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..04/18/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-047-049-051-053-063-067-
069-071-075-081-083-085-087-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137-
141-149-182240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CADDO
CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON KAY KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE
MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY
NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
$$
TXC009-077-097-181-337-485-182240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER CLAY COOKE
GRAYSON MONTAGUE WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.