Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 800 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
CHAMBERLAIN SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 166...WW 167...WW 168...
DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL
SD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND OTHERWISE EXPAND/POTENTIALLY
ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL SD THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITH AID OF AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR ARE NOTED IN 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM RAPID CITY AND
ABERDEEN. DAMAGING WINDS/BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...GUYER
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 169 SEVERE TSTM SD 180100Z - 180700Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NNW PIR/PIERRE SD/ - 60SSW 9V9/CHAMBERLAIN SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /44NNW PIR - 26NNE ANW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 45049923 42959838 42950116 45040211
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 169 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 169
VALID 180330Z - 180440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 674
..MARSH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 169
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-015-017-023-043-049-053-059-065-069-073-075-085-107-117-
119-180440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BRULE BUFFALO
CHARLES MIX DOUGLAS FAULK
GREGORY HAND HUGHES
HYDE JERAULD JONES
LYMAN POTTER STANLEY
SULLY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 169
VALID 180235Z - 180340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 169
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-015-017-023-043-049-053-059-065-069-073-075-085-107-117-
119-180340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BRULE BUFFALO
CHARLES MIX DOUGLAS FAULK
GREGORY HAND HUGHES
HYDE JERAULD JONES
LYMAN POTTER STANLEY
SULLY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 169
VALID 180140Z - 180240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MARSH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 169
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-015-017-023-043-049-053-059-065-069-073-075-085-107-117-
119-180240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BRULE BUFFALO
CHARLES MIX DOUGLAS FAULK
GREGORY HAND HUGHES
HYDE JERAULD JONES
LYMAN POTTER STANLEY
SULLY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.