Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
425 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 425 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF POTEAU
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 166...WW 167...WW
168...WW 169...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WATCH AREA THRU THE EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. STEEP...COOL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE COUPLED A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL IN MANY
STORMS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS BY EVENING AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. SOME OF AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE TO TORNADO WATCH IF THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 170 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 182125Z - 190500Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NNE CNU/CHANUTE KS/ - 30SSE RKR/POTEAU OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /32W BUM - 46S FSM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 38259359 34619291 34619591 38259673
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 170 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 170
VALID 190435Z - 190500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MLC
TO 15 S GMJ TO 15 NE GMJ TO 15 WSW UMN TO 15 NNW FYV TO 20 NNW
FSM TO 30 N DEQ.
WW 170 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190500Z.
..DIAL..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-190500-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
$$
MOC119-190500-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCDONALD
$$
OKC001-021-061-077-079-091-101-121-135-190500-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE HASKELL
LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH
MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 170
VALID 190335Z - 190440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW TUL
TO 25 ESE BVO TO 35 SSW CNU TO 30 W CNU TO 15 S EMP TO 55 NNE JLN
TO 20 N FYV TO 25 NNW FSM TO 35 SSE RKR.
..DIAL..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-190440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-011-021-037-099-125-133-205-207-190440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHEROKEE
CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC011-097-119-145-217-190440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON JASPER MCDONALD
NEWTON VERNON
$$
OKC001-021-035-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-105-111-115-121-131-
135-145-190440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCINTOSH MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKMULGEE
OTTAWA PITTSBURG ROGERS
SEQUOYAH WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 170
VALID 190240Z - 190340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW EMP
TO 55 NNE JLN TO 20 N FYV TO 25 NNW FSM TO 35 N DEQ.
..DIAL..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-190340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-011-019-021-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-190340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK
GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC011-097-119-145-217-190340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON JASPER MCDONALD
NEWTON VERNON
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-
115-117-121-131-135-143-145-147-190340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL
LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PITTSBURG
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 170
VALID 190140Z - 190240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW EMP
TO 55 NNE JLN TO 15 N FYV TO 20 NNW FSM TO 35 SSE RKR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 522
..DIAL..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-190240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-011-019-021-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-190240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK
GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC011-097-119-145-217-190240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON JASPER MCDONALD
NEWTON VERNON
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-
115-117-121-131-135-143-145-147-190240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL
LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PITTSBURG
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 170
VALID 190040Z - 190140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW EMP
TO 50 NNW SGF TO 20 SSE UMN TO 20 N FSM TO 30 SSE RKR.
..DIAL..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-190140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-011-019-021-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-190140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK
GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-039-057-097-109-119-145-217-190140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON CEDAR
DADE JASPER LAWRENCE
MCDONALD NEWTON VERNON
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-
115-117-121-131-135-143-145-147-190140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL
LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PITTSBURG
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 170
VALID 182340Z - 190040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW OJC
TO 30 NE CNU TO 50 N SGF.
..DIAL..04/18/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-101-115-127-131-143-149-
190040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOONE CARROLL
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON
LOGAN MADISON NEWTON
POPE SCOTT SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON YELL
$$
KSC001-003-011-019-021-031-037-049-073-099-111-125-133-205-207-
190040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY
CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD
LABETTE LYON MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-039-043-057-077-085-097-109-119-145-167-185-209-213-
217-190040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON CEDAR
CHRISTIAN DADE GREENE
HICKORY JASPER LAWRENCE
MCDONALD NEWTON POLK
ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY
VERNON
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-
115-117-121-131-135-143-145-147-190040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL
LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PITTSBURG
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.