Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MONTICELLO ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF CAPE GIRARDEAU
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN AR. STRONG
DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION
WILL POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 171 SEVERE TSTM AR MO 191740Z - 200000Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20SW LLQ/MONTICELLO AR/ - 35WNW CGI/CAPE GIRARDEAU MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /39ENE ELD - 16SSE FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 33439294 37409116 37408916 33439104
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 171 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 171
VALID 192255Z - 192340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CGI TO
25 S CGI TO 20 SSE CGI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 529
..SMITH..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 171
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC133-143-192340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 171
VALID 192145Z - 192240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW DYR
TO 5 SSW POF TO 10 NNE CGI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 527
..SMITH..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 171
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC023-069-133-143-155-201-207-192240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT SCOTT
STODDARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 171
VALID 192020Z - 192140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW GLH
TO 25 ENE LLQ TO 30 N LIT.
..GARNER..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 171
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-021-023-031-035-037-049-055-063-065-067-075-077-093-095-
107-111-117-121-123-135-137-145-147-192140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLAY CLEBURNE
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE
LEE MISSISSIPPI MONROE
PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SHARP
STONE WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-149-155-157-181-201-207-223-
192140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID OREGON PEMISCOT
PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT
STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 171
VALID 191930Z - 192040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 526
..GARNER..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 171
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-021-023-025-031-035-037-041-043-049-055-063-065-
067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-107-111-117-121-123-135-137-145-
147-192040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLAY CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
DESHA DREW FULTON
GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN LONOKE
MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS SHARP STONE
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-149-155-157-181-201-207-223-
192040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID OREGON PEMISCOT
PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT
STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 171
VALID 191825Z - 191940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 171
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-021-023-025-031-035-037-041-043-049-055-063-065-
067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-107-111-117-121-123-135-137-145-
147-191940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLAY CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
DESHA DREW FULTON
GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN LONOKE
MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS SHARP STONE
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-149-155-157-181-201-207-223-
191940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID OREGON PEMISCOT
PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT
STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.