Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ALABAMA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 171...WW 172...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING
OVER SOUTHEAST MS...AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS. VERTICAL
SHEAR REMAINS VERY STRONG IN THIS REGION WITH LOCAL VAD PROFILES
SUGGESTING 300-400 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE HELICITY. A NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF TROUGH MAY ALLOW ISOLATED CELLS TO
INTENSIFY AND BECOME SUPERCELLULAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 173 TORNADO AL MS 191920Z - 200200Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NE TCL/TUSCALOOSA AL/ - 15ESE GPT/GULFPORT MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /24WSW VUZ - 35SW SJI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 33478636 30308791 30308976 33478826
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 173 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 173
VALID 200130Z - 200240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE MOB
TO 35 SE MEI TO 15 SE CBM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 532
..DIAL..04/20/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 173
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-035-
037-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-073-075-081-085-087-091-093-099-
101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-131-133-
200240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB
BLOUNT BULLOCK BUTLER
CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE
CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE
CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH
COOSA DALLAS ELMORE
ESCAMBIA ETOWAH FAYETTE
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LAMAR LEE LOWNDES
MACON MARENGO MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY
PICKENS PIKE RANDOLPH
RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY
SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA
TUSCALOOSA WALKER WILCOX
WINSTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 173
VALID 200045Z - 200140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MOB TO
35 S CBM.
..DIAL..04/20/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 173
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
035-037-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-073-075-081-085-087-091-093-
097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-
131-133-200140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK
BUTLER CALHOUN CHAMBERS
CHEROKEE CHILTON CHOCTAW
CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE
CONECUH COOSA DALLAS
ELMORE ESCAMBIA ETOWAH
FAYETTE GREENE HALE
JEFFERSON LAMAR LEE
LOWNDES MACON MARENGO
MARION MOBILE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS
PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL
ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER
TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA
WALKER WASHINGTON WILCOX
WINSTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 173
VALID 192355Z - 200040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MOB TO
35 S CBM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 530
..DIAL..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 173
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
035-037-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-073-075-081-085-087-091-093-
097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-
131-133-200040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK
BUTLER CALHOUN CHAMBERS
CHEROKEE CHILTON CHOCTAW
CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE
CONECUH COOSA DALLAS
ELMORE ESCAMBIA ETOWAH
FAYETTE GREENE HALE
JEFFERSON LAMAR LEE
LOWNDES MACON MARENGO
MARION MOBILE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS
PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL
ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER
TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA
WALKER WASHINGTON WILCOX
WINSTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 173
VALID 192140Z - 192240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S PIB TO
30 S MEI TO 30 NNE MEI.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FORTHCOMING.
..EDWARDS..04/19/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 173
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-007-013-023-025-035-047-053-057-063-065-073-075-091-093-
097-099-105-107-117-119-125-127-129-131-133-192240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BIBB BUTLER
CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH
DALLAS ESCAMBIA FAYETTE
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LAMAR MARENGO MARION
MOBILE MONROE PERRY
PICKENS SHELBY SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA WALKER WASHINGTON
WILCOX WINSTON
$$
MSC023-035-039-041-075-111-131-153-192240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE FORREST GEORGE
GREENE LAUDERDALE PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
