Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1150 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FARGO NORTH DAKOTA TO 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FARGO NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 173...WW 174...WW
175...WW 176...WW 177...
DISCUSSION...A FEW STRONG TO SVR TSTMS...MAINLY WITH A THREAT FOR
SVR HAIL...MAY MOVE/DEVELOP ENE INTO WW AREA AS WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW
STRENGTHEN ATOP SHALLOW COOL LAYER IN WAKE OF W-E FRONT NOW MOVING S
INTO NE SD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 178 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 190450Z - 190900Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NW FAR/FARGO ND/ - 70SSW FAR/FARGO ND/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /34SSW GFK - 51SSW FAR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 47479648 45979623 45979851 47479883
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 178 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 178
VALID 190840Z - 190900Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ABR
TO 35 ESE JMS TO 25 NE FAR.
WW 178 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190900Z.
..PETERS..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 178
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-167-190900-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY WILKIN
$$
NDC017-073-077-081-190900-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 178
VALID 190735Z - 190840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ABR
TO 35 ESE JMS TO 25 NE FAR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 693.
..PETERS..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 178
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-167-190840-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY WILKIN
$$
NDC017-073-077-081-190840-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 178
VALID 190700Z - 190740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 178
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-107-167-190740-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY NORMAN WILKIN
$$
NDC003-017-039-073-077-081-091-097-190740-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS GRIGGS
RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT
STEELE TRAILL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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