Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
425 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 425 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
FLIPPIN ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF EL DORADO
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 177...WW 178...
DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MOIST...DESTABILIZING
AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. CURRENT
LITTLE ROCK VAD INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 0-1
KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
EMBEDDED BOWING AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 179 TORNADO AR 152125Z - 160500Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45ENE FLP/FLIPPIN AR/ - 15SSE ELD/EL DORADO AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /42WNW ARG - 14S ELD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 36439037 33009143 33009401 36439306
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 179 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 179
VALID 160240Z - 160340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GLH
TO 20 ENE ELD TO 20 S POF.
..KERR..04/16/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 179
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-021-025-031-037-041-043-055-067-069-075-077-079-085-
095-107-111-117-121-123-147-160340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CLAY
CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CROSS
DESHA DREW GREENE
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN LONOKE
MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT
PRAIRIE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
WOODRUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 179
VALID 160140Z - 160240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..04/16/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 179
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-021-025-031-037-041-043-053-055-067-069-075-077-
079-085-095-107-111-117-121-123-147-160240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLAY CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD
CROSS DESHA DREW
GRANT GREENE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE
PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 179
VALID 160045Z - 160140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW GLH TO
15 NNW ELD TO 5 SSW LIT TO 25 ESE UNO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 556
..ROGERS..04/16/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 179
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-021-025-031-037-041-043-053-055-063-065-067-069-
075-077-079-085-095-107-111-117-119-121-123-135-145-147-
160140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLAY CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD
CROSS DESHA DREW
GRANT GREENE INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON
LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN
LONOKE MONROE PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SHARP
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 179
VALID 152340Z - 160040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TXK TO
35 S HOT TO 15 SW UNO.
..ROGERS..04/15/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 179
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-021-023-025-027-031-037-039-041-043-045-049-053-
055-059-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085-095-099-103-107-111-
117-119-121-123-125-135-137-139-141-145-147-160040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLAY CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA CRAIGHEAD CROSS
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER FULTON GRANT
GREENE HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE
NEVADA OUACHITA PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SALINE
SHARP STONE UNION
VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 179
VALID 152235Z - 152340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TXK TO
45 NE TXK TO 25 N FLP.
..ROGERS..04/15/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 179
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-005-011-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-037-039-041-043-
045-049-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085-091-095-
099-103-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-129-135-137-139-141-
145-147-152340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BRADLEY
CALHOUN CLARK CLAY
CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CROSS
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER FULTON GRANT
GREENE HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LONOKE MILLER
MONROE NEVADA OUACHITA
PERRY PHILLIPS POINSETT
POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SALINE
SEARCY SHARP STONE
UNION VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.