Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
FALLS CITY NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF WICHITA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...
DISCUSSION...RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...WHERE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 500 MB JET STREAK WILL AID STORM
INITIATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEAR
LIKELY... ESPECIALLY INITIALLY...BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE... WITH THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF A SEVERE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL SPREAD
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...BEFORE
DAMAGING WINDS BECOME A MORE PROMINENT RISK THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 181 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 191850Z - 200300Z
AXIS..115 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNW FNB/FALLS CITY NE/ - 45S ICT/WICHITA KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 100NM E/W /26NE PWE - 46NNE END/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 40529366 36979534 36979951 40529804
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 181 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 181
VALID 192355Z - 200040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PNC
TO 30 E ICT TO 40 S RSL.
..SMITH..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...TOP...EAX...DDC...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 181
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-145-200040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT PAGE
$$
KSC001-003-005-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-035-041-043-045-049-
059-061-073-079-085-087-089-091-099-103-107-111-113-115-117-121-
123-125-127-131-133-139-143-149-155-157-161-169-177-197-201-205-
207-209-200040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON
BROWN BUTLER CHASE
CHAUTAUQUA CLAY CLOUD
COFFEY COWLEY DICKINSON
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELK
FRANKLIN GEARY GREENWOOD
HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JEWELL JOHNSON LABETTE
LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL
MIAMI MITCHELL MONTGOMERY
MORRIS NEMAHA NEOSHO
OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
RENO REPUBLIC RILEY
SALINE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON WILSON WOODSON
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-005-021-025-037-047-049-061-063-075-081-087-095-129-147-
165-177-227-200040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CASS CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY HARRISON HOLT
JACKSON MERCER NODAWAY
PLATTE RAY WORTH
$$
NEC025-059-067-095-097-109-127-129-131-133-147-151-159-169-
200040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS FILLMORE GAGE
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER
NEMAHA NUCKOLLS OTOE
PAWNEE RICHARDSON SALINE
SEWARD THAYER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 181
VALID 192035Z - 192140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...TOP...EAX...DDC...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 181
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-145-192140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT PAGE
$$
KSC001-003-005-007-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-035-041-043-045-
049-053-059-061-073-077-079-085-087-089-091-095-099-103-105-107-
111-113-115-117-121-123-125-127-131-133-139-143-149-151-155-157-
159-161-169-173-177-185-191-197-201-205-207-209-192140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON
BARBER BROWN BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY
CLOUD COFFEY COWLEY
DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS
ELK ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JEWELL JOHNSON KINGMAN
LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN
LINN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MIAMI
MITCHELL MONTGOMERY MORRIS
NEMAHA NEOSHO OSAGE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE PRATT
RENO REPUBLIC RICE
RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK
SHAWNEE STAFFORD SUMNER
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WILSON
WOODSON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-005-021-025-037-047-049-061-063-075-081-087-095-129-147-
165-177-227-192140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CASS CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY HARRISON HOLT
JACKSON MERCER NODAWAY
PLATTE RAY WORTH
$$
NEC025-059-067-095-097-109-127-129-131-133-147-151-159-169-
192140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS FILLMORE GAGE
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER
NEMAHA NUCKOLLS OTOE
PAWNEE RICHARDSON SALINE
SEWARD THAYER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.