Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA
NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
SHENANDOAH IOWA TO 40 MILES NORTH OF BURLINGTON IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...WW
181...WW 182...
DISCUSSION...STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MISSOURI BORDER...ALONG A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY...WHILE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL
JET STRONG NOSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGEST STORMS MAY
INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA INTO EARLY
EVENING...WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 183 TORNADO IA IL MO 192000Z - 200300Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45NNW SDA/SHENANDOAH IA/ - 40N BRL/BURLINGTON IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /11N OVR - 24ESE IOW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 42159575 42159112 40569112 40569575
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 183 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 183
VALID 200145Z - 200240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SDA
TO 40 ENE SDA TO 30 ESE DNS TO 35 ENE DNS.
..MEAD..05/20/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 183
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-015-039-049-051-053-073-077-099-117-121-123-125-
127-135-153-157-159-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-200240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
BOONE CLARKE DALLAS
DAVIS DECATUR GREENE
GUTHRIE JASPER LUCAS
MADISON MAHASKA MARION
MARSHALL MONROE POLK
POWESHIEK RINGGOLD STORY
TAMA TAYLOR UNION
WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 183
VALID 192335Z - 200040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 183
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC067-071-131-161-200040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANCOCK HENDERSON MERCER
ROCK ISLAND
$$
IAC001-003-007-009-011-015-027-029-031-039-045-047-049-051-053-
057-073-077-085-087-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-117-
121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-139-153-155-157-159-161-163-165-
169-171-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-200040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CASS CEDAR
CLARKE CLINTON CRAWFORD
DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR
DES MOINES GREENE GUTHRIE
HARRISON HENRY IOWA
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK
LEE LINN LOUISA
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MILLS
MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY
MUSCATINE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE
POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC
SCOTT SHELBY STORY
TAMA TAYLOR UNION
VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
MOC045-199-200040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK SCOTLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 183
VALID 192235Z - 192340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 183
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC067-071-131-161-192340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANCOCK HENDERSON MERCER
ROCK ISLAND
$$
IAC001-003-007-009-011-015-027-029-031-039-045-047-049-051-053-
057-073-077-085-087-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-117-
121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-139-153-155-157-159-161-163-165-
169-171-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-192340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CASS CEDAR
CLARKE CLINTON CRAWFORD
DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR
DES MOINES GREENE GUTHRIE
HARRISON HENRY IOWA
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK
LEE LINN LOUISA
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MILLS
MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY
MUSCATINE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE
POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC
SCOTT SHELBY STORY
TAMA TAYLOR UNION
VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
MOC045-199-192340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK SCOTLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 183
VALID 192145Z - 192240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 183
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC067-071-131-161-192240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANCOCK HENDERSON MERCER
ROCK ISLAND
$$
IAC001-003-007-009-011-015-027-029-031-039-045-047-049-051-053-
057-073-077-085-087-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-117-
121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-139-153-155-157-159-161-163-165-
169-171-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-192240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CASS CEDAR
CLARKE CLINTON CRAWFORD
DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR
DES MOINES GREENE GUTHRIE
HARRISON HENRY IOWA
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK
LEE LINN LOUISA
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MILLS
MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY
MUSCATINE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE
POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC
SCOTT SHELBY STORY
TAMA TAYLOR UNION
VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
MOC045-199-192240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK SCOTLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.