Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA
NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST OF
LEAVENWORTH KANSAS TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 182...WW 183...
DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOCUSING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER
NERN KS AT 21Z WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT NEWD
ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN
NEAR AND NORTH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SW-NE ACROSS WW WITH PRIMARY
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 184 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO 252130Z - 260300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10W FLV/LEAVENWORTH KS/ - 25NE IRK/KIRKSVILLE MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /24WNW MKC - 22NE IRK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 40229511 41229220 39499220 38499511
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 184 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 184
VALID 260225Z - 260340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 571
..GARNER..04/26/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-053-135-179-185-260340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR
MONROE WAPELLO WAYNE
$$
KSC005-043-091-103-121-209-260340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH MIAMI WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-095-
107-115-117-121-129-165-171-175-177-195-197-211-227-260340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CARROLL CASS
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON JACKSON
LAFAYETTE LINN LIVINGSTON
MACON MERCER PLATTE
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 184
VALID 260130Z - 260240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..04/26/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-053-135-179-185-260240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR
MONROE WAPELLO WAYNE
$$
KSC005-043-091-103-121-209-260240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH MIAMI WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-095-
107-115-117-121-129-165-171-175-177-195-197-211-227-260240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CARROLL CASS
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON JACKSON
LAFAYETTE LINN LIVINGSTON
MACON MERCER PLATTE
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 184
VALID 260035Z - 260140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 570
..GARNER..04/26/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-053-135-179-185-260140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR
MONROE WAPELLO WAYNE
$$
KSC005-043-091-103-121-209-260140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH MIAMI WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-095-
107-115-117-121-129-165-171-175-177-195-197-211-227-260140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CARROLL CASS
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON JACKSON
LAFAYETTE LINN LIVINGSTON
MACON MERCER PLATTE
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 184
VALID 252325Z - 260040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..04/25/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-053-135-179-185-260040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR
MONROE WAPELLO WAYNE
$$
KSC005-043-091-103-121-209-260040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH MIAMI WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-095-
107-115-117-121-129-165-171-175-177-195-197-211-227-260040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CARROLL CASS
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON JACKSON
LAFAYETTE LINN LIVINGSTON
MACON MERCER PLATTE
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 184
VALID 252230Z - 252340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..04/25/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-053-135-179-185-252340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR
MONROE WAPELLO WAYNE
$$
KSC005-043-091-103-121-209-252340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH MIAMI WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-095-
107-115-117-121-129-165-171-175-177-195-197-211-227-252340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CARROLL CASS
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON JACKSON
LAFAYETTE LINN LIVINGSTON
MACON MERCER PLATTE
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.