Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 450 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ONEILL NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BEATRICE NEBRASKA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...WW
181...WW 182...WW 183...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/STORM
CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AND E OF MAIN AXIS
OF MID-LVL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY E ACROSS REGION. COOL MID-LVL TEMPS
ATOP MODEST BUT MOIST SELY LOW-LVL FLOW MAY SUPPORT INSTANCES OF SVR
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH AT
LEAST MID EVE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22020.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 184 SEVERE TSTM NE 192150Z - 200500Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NE ONL/ONEILL NE/ - 50WSW BIE/BEATRICE NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /35NE ONL - 65N SLN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22020.
LAT...LON 42869683 40009638 40009884 42869941
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 184 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 184
VALID 200145Z - 200240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CNK TO
10 SSE OLU TO 15 E YKN.
..MEAD..05/20/13
ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC021-023-027-037-039-053-055-153-155-167-173-177-179-200240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURT BUTLER CEDAR
COLFAX CUMING DODGE
DOUGLAS SARPY SAUNDERS
STANTON THURSTON WASHINGTON
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 184
VALID 192335Z - 200040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S HSI TO
10 W GRI TO 25 E BBW.
..MEAD..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC001-003-011-015-021-023-027-035-037-039-053-055-071-077-079-
081-089-093-107-119-121-125-139-141-143-153-155-163-167-173-175-
177-179-181-183-185-200040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE
BOYD BURT BUTLER
CEDAR CLAY COLFAX
CUMING DODGE DOUGLAS
GARFIELD GREELEY HALL
HAMILTON HOLT HOWARD
KNOX MADISON MERRICK
NANCE PIERCE PLATTE
POLK SARPY SAUNDERS
SHERMAN STANTON THURSTON
VALLEY WASHINGTON WAYNE
WEBSTER WHEELER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 184
VALID 192235Z - 192340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC001-003-011-015-019-021-023-027-035-037-039-053-055-061-071-
077-079-081-089-093-099-107-119-121-125-139-141-143-153-155-163-
167-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-192340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE
BOYD BUFFALO BURT
BUTLER CEDAR CLAY
COLFAX CUMING DODGE
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GARFIELD
GREELEY HALL HAMILTON
HOLT HOWARD KEARNEY
KNOX MADISON MERRICK
NANCE PIERCE PLATTE
POLK SARPY SAUNDERS
SHERMAN STANTON THURSTON
VALLEY WASHINGTON WAYNE
WEBSTER WHEELER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.