Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN IOWA
WESTERN ANDN NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 810 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF LONEROCK
WISCONSIN TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181...WW
182...WW 183...WW 184...WW 185...WW 186...
DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT WW
AREA THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY MON AS MOIST...SSWLY LLJ NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENS AND SWLY MID-LVL FLOW INTENSIFIES WITH THE CONTINUED NE
ADVANCE OF 70+ KT MID SPEED MAX IN E QUADRANT OF NEB UPR LOW.
ACTIVITY MAY INCLUDE A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS...SUPERCELLS...AND LEWPS
WITH A RISK FOR DMGG WIND...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES DESPITE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 187 TORNADO IA IL MN MO WI 200110Z - 200800Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45N LNR/LONEROCK WI/ - 20SE BRL/BURLINGTON IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /27NW DLL - 48NNE UIN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
LAT...LON 43868847 40568923 40569248 43869188
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 187 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 187
VALID 200640Z - 200740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW OSH TO
15 NW JVL TO 30 SSW MSN TO 20 E VOK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 722.
..PETERS..05/20/13
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 187
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC001-021-025-047-077-200740-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS COLUMBIA DANE
GREEN LAKE MARQUETTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 187
VALID 200530Z - 200640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PIA
TO 30 NNE MLI TO 30 WSW LNR TO 45 S LSE TO 15 E LSE.
..PETERS..05/20/13
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 187
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-037-073-085-095-099-103-141-143-155-175-177-195-
201-200640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
DE KALB HENRY JO DAVIESS
KNOX LA SALLE LEE
OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM
STARK STEPHENSON WHITESIDE
WINNEBAGO
$$
WIC001-019-021-023-025-027-043-045-047-049-053-055-057-065-077-
081-103-105-111-119-123-127-200640-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLARK COLUMBIA
CRAWFORD DANE DODGE
GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE
IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON
JUNEAU LAFAYETTE MARQUETTE
MONROE RICHLAND ROCK
SAUK TAYLOR VERNON
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 187
VALID 200435Z - 200540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW BRL
TO 30 ENE CID TO 35 NE ALO TO 30 ESE LSE TO 20 E LSE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 720
..SMITH..05/20/13
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 187
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-037-057-067-071-073-085-095-099-103-109-123-125-
131-141-143-155-161-169-175-177-179-187-195-201-203-200540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
DE KALB FULTON HANCOCK
HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS
KNOX LA SALLE LEE
MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MASON
MERCER OGLE PEORIA
PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER
STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL
WARREN WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO
WOODFORD
$$
IAC031-043-045-055-057-061-065-097-105-115-139-163-200540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON
DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE
FAYETTE JACKSON JONES
LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT
$$
WIC001-019-021-023-025-027-043-045-047-049-053-055-057-065-077-
081-103-105-111-119-123-127-200540-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLARK COLUMBIA
CRAWFORD DANE DODGE
GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE
IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON
JUNEAU LAFAYETTE MARQUETTE
MONROE RICHLAND ROCK
SAUK TAYLOR VERNON
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 187
VALID 200150Z - 200240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/20/13
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 187
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-037-057-067-071-073-085-089-093-095-099-103-109-
111-123-125-131-141-143-155-161-169-175-177-179-187-195-201-203-
200240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
DE KALB FULTON HANCOCK
HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS
KANE KENDALL KNOX
LA SALLE LEE MCDONOUGH
MCHENRY MARSHALL MASON
MERCER OGLE PEORIA
PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER
STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL
WARREN WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO
WOODFORD
$$
IAC005-011-019-031-037-043-045-055-057-061-065-067-087-089-095-
097-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-131-139-163-177-183-191-
200240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BENTON BUCHANAN
CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON
CLINTON DELAWARE DES MOINES
DUBUQUE FAYETTE FLOYD
HENRY HOWARD IOWA
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LEE
LINN LOUISA MITCHELL
MUSCATINE SCOTT VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON WINNESHIEK
$$
MNC045-055-099-109-157-169-200240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FILLMORE HOUSTON MOWER
OLMSTED WABASHA WINONA
$$
MOC045-199-200240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK SCOTLAND
$$
WIC001-011-019-021-023-025-027-043-045-047-049-053-055-057-063-
065-077-081-103-105-111-119-121-123-127-200240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CLARK
COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE
DODGE GRANT GREEN
GREEN LAKE IOWA JACKSON
JEFFERSON JUNEAU LA CROSSE
LAFAYETTE MARQUETTE MONROE
RICHLAND ROCK SAUK
TAYLOR TREMPEALEAU VERNON
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.