Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 600 AM UNTIL 100
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DODGE
CITY KANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF MANHATTAN KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG SW-NE WARM FRONT
REDEVELOPING NWD INTO CNTRL KS THIS MORNING...WHERE STRONG/MOIST SLY
LLJ WILL PERSIST BENEATH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
WHILE LOW LVL UPLIFT ALONG BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL BE NECESSARY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION...WIND PROFILES AND BOUNDARY ORIENTATION SUGGEST
THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
STRONG LOW LVL VEERING WIND PROFILES. THIS COULD SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 188 TORNADO KS 261100Z - 261800Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10SW DDC/DODGE CITY KS/ - 15S MHK/MANHATTAN KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /34ESE GCK - 44E SLN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 38380009 39639666 38189666 36930009
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 188 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 188
VALID 261355Z - 261440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW DDC
TO 10 ENE RSL.
..SPC..04/26/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 188
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-017-025-027-033-041-047-053-061-079-097-105-113-115-127-
143-145-151-155-159-161-169-185-261440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHASE CLARK
CLAY COMANCHE DICKINSON
EDWARDS ELLSWORTH GEARY
HARVEY KIOWA LINCOLN
MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS
OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT
RENO RICE RILEY
SALINE STAFFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 188
VALID 261235Z - 261340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..04/26/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 188
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-017-025-027-033-041-047-053-057-061-079-083-097-105-113-
115-127-135-143-145-151-155-159-161-165-167-169-185-261340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHASE CLARK
CLAY COMANCHE DICKINSON
EDWARDS ELLSWORTH FORD
GEARY HARVEY HODGEMAN
KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MARION MORRIS NESS
OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT
RENO RICE RILEY
RUSH RUSSELL SALINE
STAFFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.