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Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189
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WW0189 Radar
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate

Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
   SEL9
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 189
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   100 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   
   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     LOWER MICHIGAN
     LAKE HURON
     LAKE MICHIGAN
   
   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
     800 PM EDT.
   
   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST
   NORTHWEST OF ALPENA MICHIGAN TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF JACKSON
   MICHIGAN.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
   
   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   &&
   
   DISCUSSION...IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODEST DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING WIND
   SHIFT...ENHANCED BY THE LAKE BREEZE...ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
   AFTERNOON.  BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES...SURFACE HEATING OF A
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS YIELDED LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
   2000-3000+ J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL.  CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOLS MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 24035.
   
   
   ...KERR
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