Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
SHERMAN TEXAS TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...WW 190...WW 191...
DISCUSSION...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE
DRYLINE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER MEAN
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTS PROPAGATION AWAY FROM THE DRY LINE
INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE
EXPECTED TO STILL STRENGTHEN SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE RED RIVER. AS THIS OCCURS...AND
ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO A LESS STRONGLY HEATED/HIGHER RELATIVELY
HUMIDITY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRY LINE...A RISK FOR
TORNADOES WILL EXIST...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 192 TORNADO TX 201920Z - 210300Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45WNW GYI/SHERMAN TX/ - 65SE SJT/SAN ANGELO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /18SW ADM - 8NE JCT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 33959583 30699820 30690123 33959897
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 192 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 192
VALID 202100Z - 202240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..05/20/13
ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 192
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-053-059-083-085-093-095-097-121-133-143-147-171-181-193-
221-237-265-267-281-299-307-319-327-333-337-363-367-399-411-417-
425-429-441-447-497-503-202240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN BURNET CALLAHAN
COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE
CONCHO COOKE DENTON
EASTLAND ERATH FANNIN
GILLESPIE GRAYSON HAMILTON
HOOD JACK KERR
KIMBLE LAMPASAS LLANO
MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD
MILLS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER RUNNELS SAN SABA
SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.