Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA
A SMALL PART OF WESTERN ILLINOIS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 635 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF WATERLOO IOWA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OTTUMWA
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...WW 190...WW
191...WW 192...WW 193...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG SSW-NNE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SLOWLY E ACROSS CNTRL IA. OTHER STORMS MAY SPREAD NEWD
INTO SE IA/FAR WRN IL ON NRN FRINGE OF NE MO STORM CLUSTER. AMPLE
SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR
SVR HAIL AND HIGH WIND. A CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR
TORNADOES GIVEN 40+ KT 700 MB AND 50+ KT 500 MB FLOW...AND PARTS OF
THE WW MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO TORNADO IF STORMS REMAIN MORE
DISCRETE THAN NOW EXPECTED .
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 194 SEVERE TSTM IA IL 202335Z - 210600Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15ENE ALO/WATERLOO IA/ - 40SSW OTM/OTTUMWA IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /60ESE MCW - 26NNW IRK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
LAT...LON 42619065 40569130 40569416 42619359
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 194 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 194
VALID 210350Z - 210440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E LWD TO
15 ENE ALO.
..SMITH..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 194
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC071-131-187-210440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HENDERSON MERCER WARREN
$$
IAC007-011-013-017-051-057-087-095-101-103-107-111-113-115-123-
135-157-171-177-179-183-185-210440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK
BREMER DAVIS DES MOINES
HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEOKUK LEE
LINN LOUISA MAHASKA
MONROE POWESHIEK TAMA
VAN BUREN WAPELLO WASHINGTON
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 194
VALID 210250Z - 210340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ESE LWD TO
20 WSW OXV TO 30 ENE DSM TO 40 WSW ALO TO 30 W ALO.
..MEAD..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 194
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC071-131-187-210340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HENDERSON MERCER WARREN
$$
IAC007-011-013-017-023-051-057-075-087-095-099-101-103-107-111-
113-115-117-123-125-127-135-157-171-177-179-183-185-210340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK
BREMER BUTLER DAVIS
DES MOINES GRUNDY HENRY
IOWA JASPER JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEOKUK LEE
LINN LOUISA LUCAS
MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL
MONROE POWESHIEK TAMA
VAN BUREN WAPELLO WASHINGTON
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 194
VALID 210135Z - 210240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 194
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC071-131-187-210240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HENDERSON MERCER WARREN
$$
IAC007-011-013-015-017-023-039-049-051-053-057-075-083-087-095-
099-101-103-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-
169-171-175-177-179-181-183-185-210240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK
BOONE BREMER BUTLER
CLARKE DALLAS DAVIS
DECATUR DES MOINES GRUNDY
HARDIN HENRY IOWA
JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KEOKUK LEE LINN
LOUISA LUCAS MADISON
MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL
MONROE POLK POWESHIEK
RINGGOLD STORY TAMA
UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.